June 1, 2017

May 2017 ADP Employment Report: 253,000 Private Sector Jobs Added

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 10:54 am

Was under the weather today, so I missed ADP’s conference call.

Too bad, because it would have been interesting, given the pretty good news, which substantially beat expectations of 170,000 to 180,000 private-sector job additions.

Here it is:

Private-sector employment increased by 253,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

From the press release:

“May proved to be a very strong month for job growth,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Professional and business services had the strongest monthly increase since 2014. This may be an indicator of broader strength in the workforce since these services are relied on by many industries.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said, “Job growth is rip-roaring. The current pace of job growth is nearly three times the rate necessary to absorb growth in the labor force. Increasingly, businesses’ number one challenge will be a shortage of labor.”

The blue-collar sector also was quite positive, adding 48,000 jobs (+3K mining, +37K construction, +8K manufacturing).

Prior-month revisions:

  • April — 174K, down from 177K.
  • March — 255K, same as April and down from 263K originally.
  • February — 249K, down from 298K originally.
  • January — 268K, up from 246K originally.

The ADP results so far this year, averaging 240K per month, should make the people like Mark Zandi who believed late last year that we were on the verge of “full employment” reconsider that assumption. What I believe is happening, and what may be confirmed in tomorrow’s employment report, is that substantial numbers of people who have been on the sidelines and staying out of the workforce are getting back in — and finding work.

A look at the past 17 months tells us how significant the improvements have been:

ADPjobsAdds0116to0517

Side item worth investigating, if time: The 2016 numbers seem far lower than the sum of the 12 originally announced job additions last year.

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1 Comment

  1. Agreed, with almost 15 million people waiting for their shot at the brass ring of life, there will be no labor shortage other than temporary localized shortages for tradespersons until apprenticeship programs kick in to staff up.

    The Not in Labor Force numbers are not up to date for May yet, however, from April 2007 to April 2017: 78,818,000 to 94,375,000 respectively = 15,557,000 people available to immediately get back into the Labor Force. This is the number of people locked out of the Labor force due to Obama’s gross incompetence stifling the economy. With 4 million new high school and college grads each year plus another 1 million immigrants, the economy needed to add at least 4 to 5 million a year (340,000/month) for the last 8 years. 8 yr x 4 m = 32 million people IF we were going for a full employment economy. This is adjusting for the death rate of about 1 million a year some of which are those in the Labor Force and the rest retirees.

    https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

    Notice the graph, it has basically flat lined. As I mentioned on another thread, ever since the run away illegal immigration started in 1990, the Not in Labor Force number has steadily increased year over year until Trump…

    As a confirmation on the numbers, with over 4o million people on SNAP (foodstamps), where 17 to 18 million seems to be the floor, again there are some 20 million extra people on the roles.

    http://www.statisticbrain.com/food-stamp-statistics/

    For those who guffaw at this consider that automation is set to take greater numbers of jobs in the next decade, so any thought of needing those illegals and H1B visas is foolish. A labor shortage will never be OUR problem, just ask the Japanese whose population is declining, ours is still increasing.

    The American worker needs a break, a momentary tighter labor market will allow people a long deserved raise. You cheap skate liberal Democrats can scream all you want when your maids, housestaff and landscapers have to be paid more, boohoo tightwad jerks.

    Comment by dscott — June 1, 2017 @ 3:43 pm

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