July 6, 2017

June 2017 ADP Employment Report: 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs Added

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:37 am

Predictions, per Yahoo’s Economic Calendar: 185,000 to 200,000 private-sector jobs added.

The report will be here at 8:15.

I intend to be in on the 8:30 conference call, but may have a conflict which prevents that. We’ll see.

HERE IT IS: 158,000 jobs added. ADP revised down in April (174K to 148K) and May (253K to 230K) by a combined 49K.

CONFERENCE CALL NOTES (joined on time, got in front of a computer 7 minutes in):

MARK ZANDI: Typical month, just a little below average, and still double the 75K or so needed to absorb labor force growth. Expect lower numbers in coming months and esp in next year. Weak sectors are retail and autos.

Haven’t been at full employment for 10 years. Workers are out of practice asking for pay increases, businesses reluctant to raise prices. That’s why wages are still flat.

QUESTIONS:

ME (BLS vs. ADP discrepancy) — He doesn’t sense a slowing in job growth. BLS will come up some.

Richard Long, Reuters: Phillips Curve validity? Zandi says it takes time for it to kick in. “Very flat until it’s not.”

More investment in labor-saving technology? Zandi says there’s not a strong historical relationship.

RUGABER, AP: Delay in wage gains, any signs of people coming off the sidelines and what is impact on wage growth. Zandi sees some evidence that they’re coming back in, i.e., stability in labor force participation means that new entries are offsetting retirees. BUT the pool of workers on the sidelines is very small, esp in states with struggling economies. RUGABER: New entrants keeping wages down? ZANDI: No, because the unemployment rate is dropping.

MICHAEL COMB, Accounting Today — asked a question about the makeup of the increase in professional and business sectors jobs which Zandi did not have the info to answer.

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5 Comments

  1. Presumably the Not in Labor Force numbers will come out as well?

    Here is a SS webpage that can quickly give context to the NILF #s:

    Monthly Statistical Snapshot, May 2017

    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/

    Table 2 has the breakdown of recipients.

    41,801,000 retired workers
    8,762,000 disabled workers

    50,563,000 total

    Subtract this number from the NILF # to get a better handle on those who are really available for work. You could subtract another 2 million for those in prison if one is striving for accuracy.

    Roughly there are 44 million people that should be working that aren’t based on 94 million NILF figure. Until this number is reduced significantly, work visas should be severely restricted regardless of the Unemployment #. We know the greedy limousine liberals want cheap labor and will point to the low Unemployment # to justify keeping the work visa program and even increasing the quotas.

    Quite frankly, there are literally millions of disabled people who could work with minimal employer accommodation. From these ranks some 80% are said to want to work but are not considered. And we know that a percentage of those considered disabled are minimally so and just collect SSDI because they can’t get UI anymore.

    Comment by dscott — July 6, 2017 @ 7:39 am

  2. In regards to labor saving technology reference…

    Silicon Valley has a new vision for the pizzeria. It involves lots of robots

    http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-zume-pizza-automation-20170706-story.html

    14.7 million low skill, low wage jobs are the set to be eliminated.

    Comment by dscott — July 6, 2017 @ 9:10 am

  3. How Many Jobs Does ObamaCare Kill?

    http://nation.foxnews.com/2017/07/06/how-many-jobs-does-obamacare-kill

    The Wall Street Journal surveyed managers at small businesses and put the count at 250,000

    This IMO is a low estimate based on strictly the 50 person threshold mandate. As was pointed out years ago by Political Calculations anyone making less than $54k would loose their coverage due to the penalties regarding “affordability”. The impact of ObamaCare was weighted upon the unskilled and semi-skilled who make less than $54k and therefore would cause employers to minimize these classes of workers regardless of the 50 person threshold. When employers with over 50 people are penalized for something, they stop doing it… i.e. stop/limit hiring someone making less than $54k. And remember, that calc. takes into account the salary of the spouse if they are on the family plan.

    What is the median family income? $56.5k latest figure in 2015

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

    ObamaCare must be repealed outright, and now. If politicians want to be generous with other people’s money (taxpayers), then they should do so in a clear cost benefit ratio presented to the taxpayers.

    The greedy limousine liberals want cheap labor and they want NOT to pay for health insurance which is why they want single payer where everybody else pays but them.

    Comment by dscott — July 6, 2017 @ 9:50 am

  4. On a rated note:

    ECONOMICS 101: Missouri Rolls Back Minimum Wage After Hike Kills Jobs, Hurts Workers

    http://americanlookout.com/fzs-economics-101-missouri-rolls-back-minimum-wage-after-hike-kills-jobs-hurts-workers/

    Comment by dscott — July 7, 2017 @ 8:05 am

  5. The basis for a revived economy in 3 sectors:

    Congress joins Trump war on regs, cuts a year’s worth in one week

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/congress-joins-trump-war-on-regs-cuts-a-years-worth-in-one-week/article/2627857

    Analyst Sam Batkins wrote, “The suite of appropriations bills released this week goes further, curtailing more than $19 billion in total regulatory costs and eliminating 10.4 million hours of paperwork, the equivalent of eliminating all regulations from 2006 and freeing 5,200 employees from paperwork compliance.”

    His report, provided to Secrets in advance of its release today, said that the committee’s funding bills target regulations in the areas of financial services, agriculture and energy. The biggest ticket item: “Repeal of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill’s Volcker rule, which originally estimated $4.3 billion in costs and 2.3 million new paperwork burden hours.

    Bolds mine, notice the huge underestimate in the cost and hours related to government mandated paperwork for compliance. Three industry sectors to get a potential increase in economic activity by lightening the regulatory dead weight.

    While the MSM distracts with all these stupid fake controversies, the Congress is steadily unraveling the grip of government upon the economy.

    I suspect that establishment Republicans are attempting to kill just enough regulations to KEEP ObamaCare. Establishment Republicans and the US Chamber of Commerce want single payer as this will remove the employer sponsored health insurance benefit to employees from their bottom lines. Otherwise they would have promptly repealed ObamaCare with it’s onerous 29 hour full time work definition. This provision hits upon small business disproportionately and you know big business is all about limiting competition. The US Chamber of Commerce doesn’t represent small business, but big business interests.

    Comment by dscott — July 7, 2017 @ 9:04 am

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