July 19, 2017

Some Evidence That Real Wages Are (Finally) Rising; Related to Lower Illegal Immigration?

Filed under: Economy,Immigration,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:22 am

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics Wednesday morning:

Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 113.4 million full-time wage and salary workers were $859 in the second quarter of 2017 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was 4.2 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.

The raw gain during this year’s first two quarters was 2.3 percent. The after-inflation gain was 1.7 percent (0.6 percent in the first, and 1.1 percent in the second).

The quarter-to-quarter data seems noisy and inconsistent, so we need to see more positive quarters. With that qualifier, that 1.7 percent, two-quarter pickup is the highest such result since the first quarter of 2009, when recession-related job losses at the lower end of the pay scale skewed the results upward.

If the first two quarters are replicated in the second two quarters, the resulting 3.4 percent gain in real pay would be the highest calendar-year result since 1998.

The pay raise “coincides” with reported sharp decreases in the number of illegal-immigrant border crossings — except that it hardly seems like a coincidence.

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2 Comments

  1. Hence Paul Ryan doing his best to tamp down that increase by pushing MORE H2B visas.

    Kind of hard to have respect for someone when they are working cross purposes to lowering the number of people on government assistance therefore the budget deficit just because he is beholding to the US Chamber of Commerce…

    What is good for GM is NOT good for America!

    Comment by dscott — July 19, 2017 @ 1:37 pm

  2. Yes, that Ryan move is instensely disappointing and typical

    Comment by Tom — July 19, 2017 @ 1:49 pm

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