August 2, 2017

July ADP Employment Report: 178,000 Private-Sector Jobs Added, Prior Months Adjusted Up by 36K (Year-to-Date BLS-ADP Disparity Is Still Over 300K

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 9:50 am

From ADP, a mostly solid private-sector jobs report:

Private-sector employment increased by 178,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

From the press release:

“Job gains continued to be strong in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “However, as the labor market tightens employers may find it more difficult to recruit qualified workers.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The American job machine continues to operate in high gear. Job gains are broad-based across industries and company sizes, with only manufacturers reducing their payrolls. At this pace of job growth, unemployment will continue to quickly decline.”

Prior-month revisions:
- June — originally 158K, now 191K.
- May — originally 253K, revised to 230K in June, now 233K.

So the private sector turned in a nice July number, and saw previous months revised up by a combined 36K (33K for June and 3K for May). The past three months have averaged 200K.

This is mostly quite solid. The soft spot in July was goods-producing jobs, which only saw a net gain of 4,000. The manufacturing component of that group saw 4,000 jobs lost.

It’s hard to complain about a result which shows that 212,000 more people were working in the private sector in July than in June.

This would seem to foreshadow a strong employment report from the government on Friday.

Through the first six months of this year, ADP has shown 1.344 million seasonally adjusted private-sector job additions. The government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics shows only 1.025 million. ADP’s July number, and that report’s momentum-supporting upward revisions to previous months, would seem to indicate that BLS needs to bring its numbers closer to ADP’s, and not the other way around.

Considering the six-month BLS-ADP disparity, July’s strong ADP report, and BLS’s July seasonal conversions in recent years, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the government report 250K or more in private-sector additions.

But … we’ll see.



  1. Could have been higher were it not for the government shooting American workers in the foot:

    Foreign workers are being imported to the United States to build auto plants, a recent investigation finds.

    The L-1 visa is for foreign workers who are employed by a multinational corporation. The workers are allowed to come to the U.S. after they’ve worked with the corporation abroad for a year. Every year, close to 80,000 foreign workers are imported to take jobs that Americans would otherwise do.

    It really is time to primary every Republican who refuses to end this BS. You drain the swamp by getting rid of those who facilitate this insanity.

    Comment by dscott — August 2, 2017 @ 10:07 am

  2. There’s a sneaky immigration program for every “need,” isn’t there?

    A few thousand at most of these L-1s may be justified on the basis of special knowledge of the multinational corp’s needs, policies, etc. — IF the multinational is HQ’d outside the U.S. But the vast majority of workers on those projects should be from the U.S.

    Any U.S.-based multinational importing any workers through this program is betraying U.S. workers.

    Comment by Tom — August 2, 2017 @ 10:28 am

  3. [...] I noted on Wednesday, ADP’s private-sector jobs added for the first six months of this year is over 300,000 [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — August 4, 2017 @ 8:27 am

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