December 26, 2017

4Q17 GDP Guesstimates Update

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:43 pm

This past week’s news somehow managed to pull down fourth-quarter GDP estimates at two of the three estimates I follow most closely:

  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is at an annualized 2.8 percent.
  • The New York Fed is at 3.90 percent, down slightly from a recent 3.98 percent.
  • Moody’s is the outlier at 2.7 percent, in the sense that this is the highest its estimate has been in almost a month. Moody’s has not explained it most recent uptick to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent (or it’s behind its pay wall).

The first two sites claim that they’re current through Friday’s economic data.

Naturally, none of them have the reported tentative record Christmas shopping season spending of $800 billion (per MasterCard) baked in. One would think that if that holds up, it would be worth a few tenths of a GDP point, even after factoring in possible reported reductions in inventories.

If I had to guess based on what is known now, I’d be just over 3 percent, with almost all of the potential for a change between now and January’s first fourth-quarter release being to the upside.

Drudge Links to My ‘Has the New York Times Made Gloria Steinem’s Original 1998 Defense of Bill Clinton Disappear?’ Post at NewsBusters

UPDATE, 10 p.m.: The post discussed here first appeared at Drudge at 2:57 p.m., and went away at 7:54 p.m. ET after last appearing in the 7:50 p.m. update. I appreciate Matt Drudge linking to it as long as he did. The four searches identified in the post still did not return Steinem’s 1998 op-ed as a result as of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday.


It’s nice to get a chance to savor the fact that my NewsBusters post on Gloria Steinem’s 1998 op-ed defense of Bill Clinton from all appearances not being accessible at the Times website (link is to a print edition document obtained from a library database) …

… has made Drudge (see bottom right of graphic below; permanent Drudge archive link):


Nice to see that.

CNN Is Now GNN: The Grinch News Network

Who knew that two words could drive the people at CNN this crazy? At the network which has exemplified fake news since Donald Trump’s election in 2016, the “resistance” to Trump’s preference for saying “Merry Christmas” during this time of year has led network talking heads to repeated denials that there ever has been a war on Christmas, while at the same time trying to open new fronts in that war. We should rename this outfit GNN — the Grinch News Network.


Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (122617)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:00 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

Positivity: A Soldier’s Christmas, and a Post-Christmas Call to Action

Filed under: Positivity,US & Allied Military — Tom @ 5:55 am

Note: This post is a BizzyBlog Christmas tradition.


Posted by kmunchausen at YouTube (also at his National Institute of Prevarication), narrated by Bill Osborne (Merry Christmas, Bill):

Full text:

The embers glowed softly and in their dim light,
I gazed ’round the room and I cherished the sight.

My wife was asleep, her head on my chest,
My daughter beside me, angelic in rest.
Outside the snow fell, a blanket of white,
transforming the yard to a wintry delight.