February 13, 2018

Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (021318)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:00 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

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  1. Something else we should be watching since the MSM/Democrat narrative is about MASSIVE deficit spending by Republicans:

    Monthly Treasury Statement
    of Receipts and Outlays
    of the United States Government

    https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts1217.pdf

    We shall see how dynamic effects of the tax cut compare to the CBO’s static scoring on a month by month basis. Table 1 is the one to watch. I’m hearing the January #s are in surplus…

    Comment by dscott — February 13, 2018 @ 2:59 pm

  2. January was published yesterday:

    https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0118.pdf

    CNS covered it:

    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/feds-collect-record-taxes-first-month-under-tax-cut-run-surplus

    Receipts thru four months are up $45 billion, but spending is up $62 billion.

    January’s receipts were up $17 billion over Jan. 2017; spending was up $19 billion.

    Congress IMO may have ruined things with the latest “budget” deal with excessive spending, unless Trump figures out a way not to spend what’s authorized but unnecessary.

    Really annoyed at some outlets like IBD getting excited about January’s better receipts when there’s too much noise in the data because of the tax law changeover. We probably won’t know much about the ongoing collections story until at least April. The best we can look at is whether corporate income tax receipts drop by less than the 40% you would expect (going from 35 percent to 21 percent). January’s (Table 3) was up by $4 billion, but that really for 2017 activity.

    Comment by Tom — February 13, 2018 @ 3:20 pm

  3. Actually, I’m hearing that the new budget deal had some more tax cuts in it like eliminating the Medical Device tax and other ObamaCare taxes. If that is the case, any initial drop in revenues will quickly be offset by increased economic activity which in turn generates more tax revenue.

    Comment by dscott — February 13, 2018 @ 4:01 pm

  4. I blogged on the shutdown-averting deal having those tax cuts in it three weeks ago:

    http://www.bizzyblog.com/2018/01/25/shutdown-was-averted-with-more-tax-cuts-ap-is-not-pleased/

    Maybe they had to reauthorize that in the new one? It’s weird that it’s come up twice.

    Comment by Tom — February 13, 2018 @ 4:33 pm

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