May 10, 2018

Four-Week Average of Unemployment Claims Hits 49-Year Low

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:03 pm

From the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 221,500. This is the lowest level for this average since December 20, 1969 when it was 214,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 190,084 in the week ending May 5, an increase of 3,633 (or 1.9 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 3,590 (or 1.9 percent) from the previous week. There were 215,040 initial claims in the comparable week in 2017.

The DOL’s data website only contains “covered employment” data going back to 1971, when that figure was 53.221 million. If that figure was the same in late December 1969, claims as a percent of the covered workforce were 0.403 percent (214,500 divided by 53.221 mil).

Thursday reported claims of 216,000 amounted to 0.1527 percent of the current covered workforce of 141.433 million.

These extraordinarily strong results appear to indicate that most people who are losing their jobs are finding new ones so quickly that they don’t need to apply for unemployment benefits.

The current level of claims is about 30 percent lower than the 300K-325K level that has traditionally been considered necessary to foreshadow a lower unemployment rate.

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4 Comments

  1. Mark Zandi, shill for the cheap labor lobby hardest hit:

    From January to February (latest figure available) over 600,000 people have dropped of SNAP roles. Of which 380,000+ were adults.

    https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/pd/34SNAPmonthly.pdf

    I wish that SNAP would be more timely like the unemployment figures, but they are making progress on getting out the info. since the morons

    Comment by dscott — May 11, 2018 @ 8:58 am

  2. I wish that SNAP would be more timely like the unemployment figures, but they are making progress on getting out the info.

    https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/pd/34SNAPmonthly.pdf

    380,000 adults left the roles in one month. January -> February

    Comment by dscott — May 11, 2018 @ 9:00 am

  3. dscott, the amount of the reduction in SNAP rolls is completely unacceptable. With 3.9 percent unemploymnet, even if you concede that there are millions on the sidelines, enrollment should be way below 40 million. in 2007, IIRC, when unemployment was 4 percent, SNAP enrollment was below 20 million.

    Comment by Tom — May 11, 2018 @ 9:28 am

  4. #3, which undermines any talk of H2B visas. It will take time for Trump to unwind the damage the feckless incompetent Obama did to the most vulnerable of society.

    Shallow virtue signaling of Obama (liberals) means little in the face of real help from Trump.

    Comment by dscott — May 11, 2018 @ 10:11 am

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