May 27, 2018

Here’s an Interesting Reveal: Time’s Predicted 2016 State-by State Margins vs. Actuals

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:30 pm predicted on November 7, 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency by an electoral vote count of 323-215.

Trump won, 304-227 (with 7 faithless electors).

Here’s how Time’s predicted victory margins by state compared to the actual results as seen at the Cook Political Report:


Clinton underperformed pollster expectations in 40 states, and overperformed in only eight states and DC. The underperformances averaged 8 points, while the overperformances averaged only 3 points.

Further, 7 out of the 9 Clinton overperformances were in states (and DC) the Trump campaign ignored as lost causes (CA, CT, DC, IL, NJ, OR, VT). The only exceptions were NM, where Team Trump thought they might have a chance (and were wrong), and the trivial difference seen in NE.

As to battlegrounds, Clinton only held on in relatively small CO, NH, and NV. She lost five others collectively large states (FL, IA, NC, OH, and PA), plus two other states with expected Clinton victory margins of 6 points or more which weren’t thought to be serious battlegrounds (WI, MI).

I maintain that what happened in 2016 was far more a rejection of Hillary Clinton than an embrace of Donald Trump. That said, that dynamic now appears to be on the cusp of changing (or may have already changed). Whether it continues in Trump’s direction between now and the November 2018 midterms remains to be seen.

Frank Bruni and David Axelrod: Trump’s Jack Johnson Pardon a Cynical Move

As expected during this era of Trump Derangement Syndrome, several media members and outlets have had a tough time maturely handling President Donald Trump’s pardon of early 20th-century boxer Jack Johnson, the sport’s first black heavyweight champion. Likely topping them all were the reactions of Frank Bruni of the New York Times and former Barack Obama adviser and current CNN Senior Political Commentator David Axelrod.


Tucker Carlson Interviews ‘Roe v. Wade’ Producer, Exposes Facebook Censorship

On his Friday Fox News show, Tucker Carlson interviewed Nick Loeb, co-producer of Roe v. Wade, a dramatic film which plans to show viewers “what happened from 1966 through 1973″ that led to the Supreme Court’s decision declaring existing laws against abortion unconstitutional. Carlson’s interview concentrated primarily on obstacles Loeb has faced in funding the film — obstacles which have included overt and covert suppression of his efforts on Facebook. Loeb also revealed that the film will show America “how the media was manipulated” during that critical period.


Sunday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (052718)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:00 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

Positivity: Hero science teacher, 30, was shot three times and tackled student gunman

Filed under: Education,Positivity — Tom @ 5:00 am

From Noblesville, Indiana:

PUBLISHED: 09:47 EDT, 25 May 2018
UPDATED: 05:42 EDT, 26 May 2018

New details have emerged about how a heroic science teacher wrestled a student gunman to the ground and was shot three times after the youngster returned to his classroom from a bathroom break wielding two handguns.

Jason Seaman, 30, was shot three times as he brought the gunman to the ground in his classroom at Noblesville West Middle School on Friday shortly after 9am.

A 13-year-old girl was also shot and was taken to hospital in a critical condition afterwards.

The shooter was arrested shortly afterward Seaman tackled him and he remains in police custody.

The teacher’s family have since revealed that he has undergone surgery and is doing ‘well’.

Go here for the rest of the story.

Here is Jason Seaman’s statement: