June 29, 2018

Is California’s Economy Hitting the Brakes?

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 12:08 pm

Using the total payroll employment as an indicator, the answer, based on the past four months, is “probably”:

CaliforniaPayrollJobsJanToMay2011to2018

Rounding everything to the nearest 1,000, the state has only added 38,000 jobs in the past four months (44,000 in the private sector, not shown).

Average job additions in California from January through May during the previous seven years were 138,000.

If California had added the same number of jobs during the past four months as it averaged in the previous seven years, the nation’s payroll employment would have increased by 961,000 instead of 861,000. That’s a not-inconsequential 12 percent difference.

Yeah, it’s only four months, but we haven’t seen the full impact of the state’s move to a $15-per-hour minimum wage yet.

It would seem that the best one can hope for is that the state won’t move from very small gains to flatness or job losses — and California is big enough to hold back other nationwide economic stats from what they could be without the state’s hyper-intervention in its economy.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] California’s total February through May job adds of about 38,000 (about 9.5K per month) have trailed the past seven years for the same four months by about 100,000 (or about 25K per month). If this continues, the state [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — July 6, 2018 @ 1:51 am

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