July 5, 2018

June 2018 ADP Employment Report: A California Warning?

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:02 pm

From ADP:

Private-sector employment increased by 177,000 from May to June, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

From the press release:

“The labor market continues to march towards full employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Healthcare led job growth once again and trade rebounded nicely.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Business’ number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get much worse. These labor shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes.”

Prior month adjustments:

177K is a decent number, but the miss, and prior adjustments to March and April from their original readings (with May going the other way), are leading me to believe that ADP is over-reporting job growth initially, and then figuring out that it wasn’t what they thought it would be. Meanwhile, the rest of the USA appears to be outperforming expectations.

It may just be a coincidence, but California’s four-month job growth has also been very disappointing, and maybe ADP isn’t picking that up in its initial estimates. Today’s news is a reasonably likely indicator that California’s weak performance continued in June. We’ll see.


1 Comment

  1. [...] ADP private-sector payroll additions came in at 177,000, slightly missing expectations of [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — July 6, 2018 @ 1:50 am

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