July 16, 2018

June 2018 Advance Retail Sales: +0.5 Percent, May Revised Up Sharply to +1.3 Pct. From 0.8 Pct.

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:54 am

From the Census Bureau (eventual but not currently available permanent link):

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $506.8 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2017. Total sales for the April 2018 through June 2018 period were up 5.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2018 to May 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

The strong retail results continue.

Let’s review 2018 so far:

  • January — originally -0.3 percent, currently -0.1 percent in the Census Time Series database.
  • February — originally -0.1, currently +0.1.
  • March — originally +0.6, currently +0.7.
  • April — originally +0.3, currently +0.3.
  • May — originally +0.8, currently +1.3.
  • June — currently +0.5.

That’s four out of the first five months of 2018 revised up by a total of 1.0 points.

That’s not exactly random.

Gas price increases aren’t irrelevant, but gas is only about 8 percent of all retail sales. April through June sales ex-gas are up 5.0 percent over the same period in 2017, compared to the over 5.9 percent increase cited above.

It seems likely that the tax cuts passed in December influenced the past four months’ positive results as well as the upward revisions seen during the past six months.

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2 Comments

  1. You may have seen this and I missed it
    Even the NYT admits?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/upshot/we-ran-out-of-words-to-describe-how-good-the-jobs-numbers-are.html?tp=i-H43-A3-CBX-1mWUUy-1y-3on1V-1c-1mK0nx-hanhO

    Comment by Jim — July 16, 2018 @ 11:29 am

  2. [...] retail sales data and generally good news about Industrial Production pushed two of the key estimates above 4 [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — July 17, 2018 @ 12:57 pm

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