August 3, 2018

Econ Story of the Year So Far: All-Time Record in Actual Feb.-June Job Creation

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:43 am

Updating numbers seen earlier this morning in the jobs report post, thanks to upward revisions to May and June — The February through June economy added more jobs before seasonal adjustments (i.e., added more actual jobs) than in any other year since the government began tracking monthly job records in 1939.

First, let’s look at the overall total nonfarm figures:

NSAandNSAresultsJuly2011to2018upd

No other post-recession year comes close — unless you consider the total in 2014, which is 286,000 jobs lower than 2018, close. (Hint: It isn’t.) Despite 2018 showing the best raw results by far, the 2014 seasonal conversion at the BLS came in 142,000 jobs higher, while 2018 is barely ahead of 2015 despite showing 433,000 more actual jobs added.

The story is even more compelling in the private sector:

FebToJune2011to2018SAnsaPvtUpd

The margin between 2018 and other post-recession years is even greater. The private-sector job additions in 2014 were a whopping 332,000 below 2018. Despite 2018 again showing the best raw results by far, the 2014 seasonal conversion at the BLS came in 76,000 jobs higher. The 2018 seasonally adjusted result is also below 2011, which added 365,000 fewer actual jobs.

Yours truly has confirmed that the raw Feb.-June 2018 results are higher than any other year during which the BLS has tracked monthly data — going back to 1939. Feb.-June 1994, 1997, and 1999 came within about 160,000 in total nonfarm, and even those results arose from an inordinate increase in government jobs bloat. The closest result in the private sector was 2005, which came in 244,000 jobs lower.

It’s quite reasonable to contend that the Republican/Trump administration tax cuts passed in December have been a major factor in this year’s record Feb.-June results.

Though July’s numbers published last week aren’t as strong, we should note that BLS revised May and June up by a combined 59,000 jobs (in June’s report, it revised April and May up by a combined 37,000 jobs), and could easily add a significant number of jobs to July in its August and September revisions.

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3 Comments

  1. [...] Took a while to get back to this because of the raw numbers post, which is indeed “The Econ Story of the Year So [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — August 3, 2018 @ 10:58 am

  2. Quite interesting. Applying the January and June seasonal factors from 2014 (98.50 and 100.69 respectively) to the 2018 NSA job numbers for those months (which were 98.40 and 100.73 respectively) would yield a seasonally-adjusted gain of 1,377K, or 207K more than reported.

    For perspective, the 1/2018 seasonal factor is the smallest (biggest boost to seasonally-adjusted numbers) since 2013, while the 6/2018 seasonal factor is the highest (deepest discount to the seasonally-adjusted numbers) since 2012 (which had a smaller January seasonal factor).

    Comment by steveegg — August 3, 2018 @ 4:16 pm

  3. Even the NYT admits:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/03/business/economy/july-jobs-report-2018.html

    Comment by Jim — August 5, 2018 @ 8:33 am

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