August 8, 2018

Trump’s Shaky ’5-for-5′ Is Really ’4 For Sure’

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:00 pm

Candidates supported by Donald Trump had tentatively victorious nights on Tuesday.

The Democrat in OH-12 apparently won’t concede, but the 1,700-vote margin held by Republican Troy Balderson is overwhelmingly unlikely to go the other way with the remaining provisional ballots.

The Kansas governor’s primary race, on the other hand, really is too close to call. The Trump-favored Kris Kobach holds a narrow 191-vote lead over incumbent GOP Governor Jeff Colyer, who succeeded Sam Brownback several months ago when Brownback took a job with the Trump administration as Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom.

Trump can credibly claim partial credit for two other GOP candidate victories in Michigan, and one in Missouri.

Much is being made of the enthusiasm gap in Dem vs. GOP turnout in Ohio. That’s usually the danger for the perceived incumbent’s party or seat-defending party in special elections. The enthusiasm gap should narrow significantly in November.

One the downside, Missouri voters rejected a right-to-work law its legislature passed earlier this year by a more than 20-point margin. Those who rejected it surely don’t think so, but that’s bad news for Missouri’s rank and file workers and for the state’s competitiveness compared to other Midwestern states.

It’s important to note Tom Zawistowski’s trenchant emailed observations about why the OH-12 race was so close — AND why Balderson survived:

My Fellow Patriots,

First, do you think Troy Balderson would have had ANY chance to win last night if YOU had not done your Duty???!!!

Second, Troy Balderson is owned by Pat Tiberi and John Kasich both big time “Never Trumpers”. They, stupidly, spent $4 million on a campaign talking about “opioids” and being “above politics” and staying away from the President’s achievements, which resulted in what should have been an easy 10%+ win becoming a very close race. Bottom line, if you don’t do your Duty Tuesday and Trump doesn’t come on Saturday, they lose!!! Here is the lesson that “establishment” Republicans refuse to learn – running to the middle doesn’t work!!! Running to the Right and toward Trump does work.

Third, I am sure you heard comments on TV and radio before the election where Kasich said that Troy Balderson told him that he had not invited Trump to campaign on his behalf! Gee that was brilliant. So, who invited Trump? My guess would be RNC Co-Chair Bob Paduchik, who actually lives in the District, and saw this disaster of a campaign blowing up a key Congressional seat and he intervened to bring Trump in on Saturday. Thanks Bob for saving us from another Kasich caused disaster. We will see in the general if they learned their lesson – but I doubt it.

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