September 29, 2018

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Predictions: Pointing Towards Over 3 Percent (Annualized)

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:17 am

Friday was the final business day of the third quarter, so it’s worth looking at where GDP estimates stand following the strong second quarter:

  • The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently estimating an annualized 3.6 percent.
  • Moody’s is at 3.2 percent.
  • The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast, which badly underestimated second quarter growth, appears to be doing it again, with a 2.47 percent estimate.
  • Macro Advisers is at 3.1 percent. In late August, it estimated July’s monthly GDP growth (not annualized) was a strong 0.4 percent, and tentatively estimated that August and September would each come in at 0.2 percent.

Barring serious data surprises, another quarter of annualized growth of over 3 percent appears very likely.

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