October 4, 2018

Hurricane Effect Absent After Just a One-Week Blip, As Jobless Claims Drop

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:40 pm

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending September 22, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 22 was 1,650,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 1,661,000 to 1,663,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,664,500, a decrease of 15,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 27, 1973 when it was 1,664,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,679,250 to 1,679,750.

Monday’s data alone (mainly ISM Manufacturing and Census Bureau Construction Spending) has pushed up the third-quarter GDP estimates at the Atlanta Fed, which is now at an annualized 4.1 percent as of Monday, up 0.5 percent from Friday’s level. Moody’s was at 3.2 percent as of Tuesday. Wednesday’s ADP report and the record ISM Non-Manufacturing result should push the estimates even higher when they’re revised.

Tomorrow’s estimated seasonally adjusted job additions look to be about 184,000, according to Bloomberg News, 185,000 per CNBC, and 184,000 per the Associated Press.

ISM’s September Reports: Still Going Strong (Mfg. at 59.8 Percent, Non-Mfg. at 61.6 Percent All-Time High)

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 7:30 am

From the Institute for Supply Management on Monday:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September, and the overall economy grew for the 113th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The September PMI® registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the August reading of 61.3 percent.

The New Orders Index registered 61.8 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the August reading of 65.1 percent. The Production Index registered 63.9 percent, a 0.6 percentage point increase compared to the August reading of 63.3 percent.

The Employment Index registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the August reading of 58.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.1 percent, a 3.4-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 64.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.3 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the August reading of 55.4 percent.

The Prices Index registered 66.9 percent in September, a 5.2-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 72.1 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 31st consecutive month.

Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength.

Backlog of Orders came in at a pretty strong 55.7 percent. The overall 1.5-point drop shouldn’t cause concern, especially because Production and New Orders are still in the 60s.

On Wednesday, the Non-Manufacturing Report came in extraordinarily strong:

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 104th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 61.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the August reading of 58.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate and is an all-time high for the NMI® since the inception of the composite index in 2008.

The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 60.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 110th consecutive month, at a faster rate in September. The New Orders Index registered 61.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.4 percent in August.

The Employment Index increased 5.7 percentage points in September to 62.4 percent from the August reading of 56.7 percent. The Prices Index increased by 1.4 percentage points from the August reading of 62.8 percent to 64.2 percent, indicating that prices increased in September for the 31st consecutive month.

According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has had two consecutive months of strong growth since the ‘cooling off’ in July. Overall, respondents remain positive about business conditions and the current and future economy. Concerns remain about capacity, logistics and the uncertainty with global trade.

No industry reported a decrease in September.

Backlog of Orders was a very strong 58.5 percent. I don’t think the Business Activity Index can or should stay at its current 65.2 percent level. So if there’s anything to worry about, it would be possible overheating leading to inflation, shortages, and bottlenecks.

I believe the weighted and combined indices, at 61.4 percent (weighted 12 percent for Manufacturing and 88 percent Non-Manufacturing) are also at or surely very near an all-time record.

September 2018 ADP Employment Report: 230,000 Private-Sector Jobs Added

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 7:14 am

This is interesting, because by now Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, the report’s director, expected that monthly private-sector job additions would be coming down by now.

Not yet, at least:

Private-sector employment increased by 230,000 from August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

From the press release:

“The labor market continues to impress,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Both the goods and services sectors soared. The professional and business services industry and construction served as key engines of growth. They added almost half of all new jobs this
month.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market continues to power forward. Employment gains are broad-based across industries and company sizes. At the current pace of job creation, unemployment will fall into the low 3%’s by this time next year.”

Upward and downward revisions to prior months have been minor compared to their original estimates.

ADP’s average during the past six months (including September) has been over 190,000, so yesterday’s number was a significant pickup.

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (100418)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:00 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

Positivity: Pro-life doctors in Ireland call for robust conscience protections

Filed under: Life-Based News,Positivity,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 5:55 am

From Dublin, Ireland:

Oct 3, 2018 / 05:01 pm

A “small but significant” number of general practitioners in the Republic of Ireland are appealing to the county’s health minister to exempt them from being forced to refer patients to other doctors for abortions, the Irish Independent is reporting.

Ireland is facing a potential shortage of doctors willing to participate in abortions; a March survey of Irish healthcare professionals found that that roughly seven out of 10 general practitioners in Ireland are unwilling to perform abortions.

The Independent reports that the objecting GPs “will require some form of accommodation,” though it is not yet clear how it will be done.

The current draft of the legislation to be debated in Irish parliament states that a doctor, nurse or midwife who has a conscientious objection to abortion must make arrangements for the woman to “transfer her care “ to another medic who will terminate her pregnancy, and must do so “as soon as may be.”

The Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission in September called for the establishment of “clear procedures within healthcare facilities for medical personnel to report in advance their refusal to provide certain services,” as well as the “establishment of a register of objecting providers.”

Dr Maitiu O Tuathail, president of the National Association of General Practitioners, wrote in June that his organization had voted unanimously that its 2,000 members wanted to be able to opt in to abortion procedures rather than opt out.

“Medical abortion is not part of routine general practice. 85% of GPs are of this opinion. This has again been replicated in several polls consistently,” O Tuathail wrote in The Journal. “By equating abortion to the management of asthma, heart disease or diabetes, people are being disingenuous and I believe disrespectful to women.” …

Gp here for the rest of the story.