October 4, 2018

Hurricane Effect Absent After Just a One-Week Blip, As Jobless Claims Drop

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:40 pm

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending September 22, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 22 was 1,650,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 1,661,000 to 1,663,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,664,500, a decrease of 15,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 27, 1973 when it was 1,664,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,679,250 to 1,679,750.

Monday’s data alone (mainly ISM Manufacturing and Census Bureau Construction Spending) has pushed up the third-quarter GDP estimates at the Atlanta Fed, which is now at an annualized 4.1 percent as of Monday, up 0.5 percent from Friday’s level. Moody’s was at 3.2 percent as of Tuesday. Wednesday’s ADP report and the record ISM Non-Manufacturing result should push the estimates even higher when they’re revised.

Tomorrow’s estimated seasonally adjusted job additions look to be about 184,000, according to Bloomberg News, 185,000 per CNBC, and 184,000 per the Associated Press.

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