October 31, 2018

October 2018 ADP Employment Report: 227,000 Private-Sector Jobs Added, Confirming Big BLS Disconnect

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:39 pm

From ADP:

Private-sector employment increased by 227,000 from September to October, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

From the press release — comments first, then details:

“Despite a significant shortage in skilled talent, the labor market continues to grow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. ”We saw significant gains across all industries with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way. We continue to see larger employers benefit in this environment as they are more apt to provide the competitive wages and strong benefits employees desire.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market bounced back strongly last month despite being hit by back-to-back hurricanes. Testimonial to the robust employment picture is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries. The only blemish is the struggles small businesses are having filling open job positions.”

Total U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment: 227,000

By Company Size:
-Small businesses: 29,000
– 1-19 employees 7,000
– 20-49 employees 22,000
- Medium businesses: 96,000
–50-499 employees 96,000
- Large businesses: 102,000
– 500-999 employees 30,000
– 1,000+ employees 73,000

By Sector:
- Goods-producing: 38,000
– Natural resources/mining 4,000
– Construction 17,000
– Manufacturing 17,000
- Service-providing: 189,000

Prior months:

  • September was revised down from 230K to 218K.
  • August, which started at 163K, is now at 162K.

The “bounceback” to which Zandi referred isn’t compared to ADP’s figure last month, which after revision is still over 200K. It’s from the BLS’s reported 134K September result. THAT, if it holds, appears to be a legitimate bounceback, because readers may recall that the BizzyBlog Reality Check of the government’s seasonal adjustments at the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that one could reasonably have expected breakeven or even negative results from the raw job additions, both overall and in the private sector.

Today’s ADP result and the relatively poor BLS last month compared to ADP (74K private-sector jobs lower, even after ADP’s downward revision, would appear to foreshadow a very positive job-additions number on Friday.

We’ll see.


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