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  1. I had a similar view of this poll. In fact it think the D-poll is kind of useless for predicting the Ohio statewide races because the sampling does not reflect the Ohio population distribution.
    For example, only 18% of the Ohio population lives in central Ohio (Franklin and 12 surrounding counties) yet 35% of the poll responses came from there. Likewise, SW Ohio (Cincinnati and the 16 surrounding counties) has 25% of the population and only 15% of the poll responses.

    The political preference of Ohio varies greatly with region so if your sample is not representative then you results are likely to be skewed and misleading.
    I also noticed if Obama really only carries NW Ohio by 10% and as well, he loses SW Ohio by 21% like the D-poll suggests — he is toast.

    I also agree the preference percentages for SE Ohio can’t be right — as pointed out the sample is too small. In 2004, G W Bush carried SE Ohio by 53 – 47% and even McCain the weakest republican in memory carried the region by 52 – 48% in 2008. I think Romney will take Ohio — I’ll be stunned if it goes any other way.

    Comment by Fargo44 — November 5, 2012 @ 7:22 pm

  2. Regarding comment #1 above: all of that is of course correct. They’re smart enough, and have been doing this long enough at the Discharge, to know those facts better than any of us. The real point is that these issues allow them to cook the outcomes reported before the elections as part of battlespace preparation. It would be interesting to search for how many times since that original O+9 poll that their resident leftist operative, Joe Hallett, has singingly reported that the choomster was campaigning in Ohio “with the wind at his back” – he really loves that phrase, redolent, as it is, of state media praise for Chairman Mao. As Limbaugh says, “democrats with bylines.” As the former McGovern pollster, and my personal favorite, Pat Caddell says, “our current media is a disgrace and a threat to the future of the nation.”

    Comment by sad democrat — November 6, 2012 @ 10:49 am

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