Private-sector employment increased by 190,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Expectations were +220K per Briefing.com and +201K per the “markets.” Revisions to the two previous months were minor.
From the press release:
“The job growth numbers for August improved slightly from July,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The employment gains for the month are in line with the year to date average.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Recent global financial market turmoil has not slowed the U.S. job market, at least not yet. Job growth remains strong and broad-based, except in the energy industry, which continues to shed jobs. Large companies also remain more cautious in their hiring than smaller ones.”
Gee, Mark, the past two months look more than a little bit slower in this graph:
Additionally, the data was collected before the “market turmoil.” ADP admits it in its full description of its methodology:
By combining the pay date and the frequency of pay, Moody’s Analytics matches the BLS pay period concept as closely as possible.
In the most straightforward case, the derived pay period includes the 12th of the month.
The Dow didn’t start dropping significantly until August 19, following the first day of a horrid multi-day dive at the Shanghai exchange.
In other words, Mark Zandi is dissembling. The past two months’ mediocre numbers pre-date the “market turmoil,” and we don’t yet have information relaing to its effect on employment.
To be clear, we also won’t have that information on Friday when the government reports its numbers, because that report also pegs from the 12th of the month — but we can expect that most in the establishment press, regardless of the results, won’t see it that way.