April 5, 2014

John Kasich’s Calamity

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:59 am

And Ohio’s Governor wants to be President.

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This column went up at PJ Media Wednesday evening and was teased here at BizzyBlog on Thursday.

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In 2010, Ohioans longing for genuine reform after decade upon decade of virtually uninterrupted tax-and-spend government finally thought they had found their change agent in former congressman John Kasich.

The state hadn’t seen anything resembling conservative governance since the first year or so of Republican George Voinovich’s gubernatorial reign during the early 1990s. But just 15 months after what had been an impressive start, Voinovich began pushing for tax increases on booze and cigarettes. By the end of his second year, he and pliant Republican legislators were plotting soak-the-rich schemes. In 1996, Voinovich was the only Republican governor in America to receive a fiscal policy “F” from the Cato Institute. By that time, Republicans in the General Assembly were complaining that they needed equal time to respond to Voinovich’s annual left-leaning State of the State addresses.

Under Bob Taft, things got even worse. After treading water during his first term, Taft in 2003 seriously sullied his ancestors’ Republican and conservative legacies by ramming massive tax increases through the General Assembly. An alleged tax reform effort in 2005 barely nibbled around the edges while adding a horrid gross receipts levy to the mix. When a scandal-plagued Taft left office, Ohio’s business tax climate was fourth-worst in the nation.

Before the Voinovich era, Democrat Dick Celeste raised the income tax by 90 percent. After the Taft era, Democrat Ted Strickland allowed the spending spree which his predecessor had enabled to continue unchecked, even as the state’s economy went into free-fall. Over 400,000 jobs, a shocking 8 percent of statewide employment, disappeared.

The time could not have been more ripe for a genuine conservative to come in and not only right the ship, but also return Ohio’s economy, after over 30 years of watching other states pass it by, to a prosperous trajectory.

Kasich certainly looked like the guy who could and would do it. During the 2010 Buckeye State governor’s race, he repeatedly told audiences that “I was in the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party,” and with good reason. While in Congress, he “was the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives’ Budget Committee in 1997 that balanced the nation’s budget for the first time in more than 30 years.” He selected State Auditor Mary Taylor as his running mate largely because, while a state representative, she had defied the establishment by voting against Taft’s tax increases.

Despite passive-aggressive obstruction by the state’s Republican Party chairman and a desperate, media-assisted smear campaign by Strickland, Kasich become the first challenger to defeat a sitting Buckeye State governor in 36 years.

To his credit, Kasich did right the fiscal ship. His first two-year budget closed the projected $8 billion budget gap Stickland had left behind without increasing taxes. He enthusiastically signed a repeal of the state’s death tax. He made some progress cutting an overgrown bureaucracy. The state’s economy responded by generating over 90,000 jobs and growing by 2.9 percent during his first 12 full months in office. Both figures significantly outpaced the averages in the rest of the U.S.

Unfortunately, Kasich and state Republicans suffered a serious political setback in November 2011, when voters decisively torpedoed their attempt to enact collective bargaining reforms analogous to those successfully implemented by Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Since then, the Governor has been a different person, and his policies have veered into places even George Voinovich and Bob Taft wouldn’t go.

His reaction to the fracking boom has been to propose a 400 percent increase in the severance tax while ramping up the rhetoric against “big oil.”

After opposing Obamacre, Kasich turned around and championed Medicaid expansion. He spent months trying to shame opponents into supporting him by playing the “Christian” card, i.e., “You’re not really a Christian if you won’t support this.” When legislators still balked, he went around them and took his case to the Controlling Board, an obscure state agency which normally deals with completely unrelated matters. When it looked like the sitting members of the Controlling Board wouldn’t do his bidding, the Governor had the House Speaker arbitrarily replace two members who planned to oppose the move with supportive lackeys. The Wall Street Journal correctly described Kasich’s heavy-handed move as “lawless.” Washington isn’t the only place where tyranny, i.e., “arbitrary or unrestrained exercise of power; despotic abuse of authority,” has gained a foothold.

As with Voinovich and Taft, Kasich’s budget unsustainably expands spending by an anticipated average of over 5 percent per year through fiscal 2015. Half of that would still be way too much.

Ohio’s economy has responded as one would expect: poorly. Despite the strong head start, statewide payroll employment growth during the 37 months which ended in February now trails the rest of the nation — and over half of that growth has been in Metro Columbus, where payrolls have grown at triple the rate seen in the stagnating rest of the state. In the three years ended in January, the statewide labor force outside of Columbus shrunk by 64,000.

Luckily for Kasich, the Democrat opposing his reelection is best referred to as the Wreck That Is Edward Fitzgerald. Thus, he will probably win reelection even after dissing the people who gave him his victory margin the first time around.

In late March, while touting Ohio’s fictional “economic turnaround,” Kasich refused to answer Chris Wallace’s repeated questions on Fox News Sunday about whether he was considering a presidential run in 2016. I take that evasiveness to mean that he’s serious about it. One year of strong governance followed by several lousy ones doesn’t get it, John.

April 3, 2014

Latest PJ Media Column (‘John Kasich’s Calamity’) Is Up

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:21 am

It went up here late Wednesday Pacific Time.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog Saturday morning (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

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Left on the cutting room floor: John Kasich is trying to appease the growing anti-Common Core wave (links added by me) —

In Ohio, a public hearing on a state bill to repeal Common Core lasted six hours, until 1 a.m., because angry tea partiers were lining up to give House Education Committee Chairman Gerald Stebelton a piece of their minds. The Republican was dubbed “Stompyfeet Stebelton” by the tea-party-affiliated group Education Freedom Ohio for his lack of enthusiasm for repealing Common Core.

Stebelton is term-limited after this year, so tea-party groups are focusing on John Kasich, Ohio’s GOP governor, who is up for reelection and has backtracked on his initial support for Common Core. They are pushing him to say he supports legislation to repeal it.

Complicating matters, Kasich appears to be good friends with Common Core champion Jeb Bush, and would probably be burning a bridge if he came out for repeal. The guess here is that he and his peeps have figured out that it’s a disaster, and are biding their time to see how consequential the Common Core opposition is before doing anything.

My response: Stand for something, John.

March 28, 2014

February Regional and State Jobs Report: Ohio Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.5% But State Loses 4,600 Jobs

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 12:10 pm

The government’s Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for February came out this morning.

The good news for Ohio is that the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 6.5 percent from 6.9 percent in January.

The bad news (but not quite as bad as it appears) is that the state lost 4,600 seasonally adjusted payroll jobs.

As I’ve often noted, February is a very important month in the job market. That’s because it’s the first of five months where employers actually (i.e., in raw numbers, before seasonal adjustments) add lots of jobs.

So if Ohio lost seasonally adjusted jobs in February, it would ordinarily mean that employers held back on their normal level of net February. Well, thanks to seasonal adjustment quirks (which, as is so often the case, demonstrates why one must look deeper), that’s only partially true:

OhioNSAjobAdds1008to0214

Overall hiring wasn’t what you’d like to see, but the seasonally adjusted calc of -4,600 made things look far worse than justified. By contrast, the private sector number was basically as bad in comparison to the three post-jobs recession years of 2011, 2012, and 2013, but somehow converted to a job loss of only 600.

Bright-siders might point out that the Buckeye State’s job losses in January were very low. True, but continued slow net hiring during the next four months could very well offset that theoretically favorable result. We’ll just have to see.

Also, at the risk of nagging, I must remind readers that Ohio’s Household Survey employment growth since January 2011 has only been 109,000:

OhioHouseholdEmpTo0214

That leaves the Buckeye State 248,000 jobs short of its peak Household Survey employment level in January 2007.

And one more nag: Though I had to do the comparison on not seasonally adjusted data for Jan. 2011 through Jan. 2014 (February metro data isn’t yet available), almost 45 percent of the Household Survey jobs added during that period (50,500 out of 112,800) were in Metro Columbus. That represents a 5.8 percent employment increase, four times the 1.45 percent increase in the rest of the state.

While Ohio outside of Columbus continues to stagnate, Columbus thrives.

Columbus just so happens to be the seat of Ohio’s government. I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. (/sarcasm)

January 23, 2014

Pro-Romney and Right to Work States Have Outperformed Others in Job Growth and Job Recovery

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:59 am

Other states have lagged.

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In the 12 full months since President Barack Obama’s reelection, payroll growth has been greater in states which supported his Republican challenger and in right-to-work states. Additionally, pro-Obama and non-right to work states have made far less progress in recovering jobs lost during the recession.

Here’s how overall seasonally adjusted payroll growth From November 2012 to November 2013 compared:

ObamaRomneyRTWandNotJobGrowth12Mos1113

During the 12 months involved, according to the Establishment Survey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 24 states which supported Mitt Romney’s unsuccessful 2012 presidential bid added 1.008 million jobs on top of the roughly 55 million they had at the beginning of the period. That 1.83 percent growth is 44 percent greater than the 1.28 percent payroll growth — 1.015 million jobs added to an already existing 79.5 million — seen in the 26 states and the District of Columbia which supported Obama.

Put another way, if the 27 Obama-supporting governmental entities had generated additional employment at the same rate as those which supported Romney, a far from inconsequential 442,000 more workers in those states would have jobs.

The story is similar when comparing states which have right to work laws to those which don’t.

Including Indiana and Michigan, which passed right to work laws in early 2011 and early 2012, respectively, the 24 right to work states added 1.080 million jobs on top of the 60.0 million they had at the start of the period. That payroll growth of 1.80 percent is about 42 percent greater than the 1.27 percent payroll growth — 943,000 jobs on top of an existing 74.5 million — seen in the Obama-supporting locales. The analogous jobs shortfall in the non-right to work entities is 397,000.

Interestingly, whether a state had a Republican or Democrat as a governor during the period was not as important as whether that state supported Obama or Romney. Payroll growth in GOP-governed states was 1.58 percent, compared to 1.40 percent in states with Democratic chief executives.

Two of the chief reasons this is the case are Ohio and Pennsylvania. Republican Governor John Kasich’s Buckeye State has seen payroll growth in the past 12 reported months of less than 20,000, or 0.30 percent. Tom Corbett’s Keystone State has only seen job growth of 0.58 percent. Less populous Alabama and New Mexico have also been significant GOP-governed laggards.

What is really telling is how well or poorly states in the categories discussed here have regained the jobs they lost during the last decade’s serious downturn:

ObamaRomneyRTWandNotJRecovery1113

For this analysis, I compared each state’s current payroll employment with their individual peak employment levels (except for Michigan, which almost continually bled jobs during the previous decade; I treated November 2007 as the Wolverine State’s “peak”).

The 28 entities which supported President Obama — including North Carolina, which supported Obama in 2008 but Romney in 2012 — are still 1.82 percent, or 1.572 million jobs, below their collective pre-recession employment peak of 86.2 million. Meanwhile, the states which supported Republican candidates in both 2008 and 2012 are only 0.55 percent, or 286,000 jobs, away from their previous combined peak of 52.2 million. If it weren’t for Florida, which is still short of its peak by 437,000 despite adding 183,000 jobs in the past 12 months, the overall result for GOP candidate-supporting states would have been positive.

Commenting on the Obama-Romney results in a phone conversation, Chris Dubay at the Heritage Foundation made a general observation that “States which tax less and regulate less do better economically.” The Romney states fit that description far better than those which supported Obama. Even after removing resource-rich Texas and North Dakota from the mix, the remaining Romney-supporting states saw 12-month job growth of 1.64 percent.

The 22 states which have been right to work since their pre-recession peak employment levels peaked (i.e., not including recent converts Indiana and Michigan) are only 0.78 percent, or 422,000, shy of where they were. The shortfall for the 29 non-right to work entities is still 1.71 percent, or 1.436 million jobs. The right to work number would also be positive if it weren’t for Florida, which under then-Republican, now-Democrat Charlie Crist lost an almost incomprehensible 922,000 jobs, or 11.4 percent of its peak workforce, from March 2007 to December 2009.

In an emailed response to a request for comment, Patrick Semmens of the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation asserted that the better results in states with right to work laws “prove that giving workers a free choice when it comes to supporting and paying dues to a union is not just morally right, but also is the correct answer for creating a dynamic economy.”

These results would suggest that citizens and governments of the states which have supported Obama or are resisting the implementation of right to work laws should consider doing things differently if they wish to try to replicate the relative successes seen in the other states.

January 7, 2014

I Wasn’t Looking For This Either …

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 4:41 pm

… but these things have a way of finding me.

A Conservative Intel email asked, “Which governors have reduced the number of state employees in their bureaucracies? You might be surprised at the answers.”

Since I have heard so much from the Kasich administration about how they have reduced state bureaucracy, I figured that this would be a good-news gimme, or at least a respite from the weak and bad news barrage on the employment and unemployment fronts yours truly has been dishing out going back at least to last spring.

So I clicked through.

Boy, was I wrong:

StateGovtWorkforceReductions0111to1113

The other chart at the Conservative Intel post tells us that Democratic strongholds California (one employee per 80.1 residents) and New York (one per 77.3) have lower state employment per capita than Ohio (one per 71.5). Ouch.

January 6, 2014

I Wasn’t Even Looking For This (on Job Declines in Metro Cleveland) …

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:03 am

… but it found me, when I was looking to see when the next Metro Area Employment and Unemployment Report covering November comes out (that will be tomorrow).

It was in the “Retrospective Summary of September 2013 Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment” at the end of October’s report (link will be overridden by November’s report tomorrow), done because the Bureau of Labor Statistics skipped issuing a September report because of the 17% government shutdown (figures are seasonally adjusted):

The largest over-the-year decrease in employment (from Sept. 2012 to Sept. 2013) occurred in Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio (-7,200), followed by Poughkeepsie, Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y. (-3,300), and Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. (-3,200). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Decatur, Ill. (-4.7 percent), Manhattan, Kan. (-3.1 percent), and Ocean City, N.J. (-3.0 percent).

To be fair to our northeastern Buckeye State buds, I looked up the stats as presented and revised for October and November (which seems to have been posted prematurely):

MetroClevelandPRjobs0102to1113

The “good” news is that September’s year-over-year shortfall is now “only” 5,400.

The bad news is that the October and November year-over-year job declines increased to amounts even greater than what was originally reported for September, i.e., to 7,500 and 7,800, respectively.

The really bad news is that Metro Cleveland is still almost 66,000 jobs shy of its pre-recession peak of 1.079 million in April 2006, and has recovered less than 30% of the 92,500 jobs lost from that month to March 2010 (26,800 jobs gained since March 2010 divided by 92,500 is 29%).

I’ll leave it to readers to mutter their own Team Kasich economic malaise comments.

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UPDATE: The seasonally adjusted 12-month decline per the Household Survey is just over 9,000 as of November. It was almost 12,000 back in April, narrowed from that point until September, and is headed the wrong way again.

The November 2013 v. 2012 not seasonally adjusted difference — more accurate because it’s supposed to reflect what’s actually there — was over 12,500.

UPDATE 2, Jan. 7: The Cleveland Plain Dealer pointed to the not seasonally adjusted Establishment Survey in reporting that November’s year-over-year Metro Cleveland employment drop was 8,100.

January 2, 2014

The Challenge For Ohio’s Establishment Challengers in the Governor’s Race

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:42 am

On the Democratic side, Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune is challenging the party’s clear favorite, Ed Fitzgerald.

The reaction on the left is predictable. Basically, it’s “who the h*ll are you?”; “how dare you?”; and (ROTFLMAO) “you’re conservative!!

Today, Clermont County resident and former Ohio Liberty Coalition President Ted Stevenot is making his challenge to incumbent Republican Governor John Kasich official.

I haven’t seen any direct establishment reax to Stevenot’s annuncement, but I really don’t have to. It will basically be the same as that seen on the left, though perhaps in a more moderate tone and accompanied by the claim that “You’re TOO conservative!!”

Both establishments’ candidates, based on their records, represent another four years of drift the Buckeye State can ill afford.

The challenge for Portune and Stevenot is to convince their respective establishments that they are more than “protest” candidates — i.e., that they have a legitimate shot at getting hordes of their supporters to the polls who will ignore the poll watchers and the threats to anyone who dares to be a donor and give their candidate a legitimate shot at winning.

I’m not saying it can’t be done, and I certainly don’t wish to discourage the efforts. But I must observe that I have yet to see anyone pull off a successful challenge such as this in Ohio at the gubernatorial level in my lifetime.

That said, have at it, guys.

December 20, 2013

November: Another Weak Month in Ohio’s Job Market

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:19 am

The key stats from today’s regional and state report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

  • Ohio’s November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% from 7.5% in October, moving from 0.2 points above October’s national average of 7.3% to 0.4 points above November’s 7.0%. 12 months ago, Ohio’s unemployment rate was 6.8%. Only Louisiana has seen its unemployment rate go up by an much as Ohio in the past 12 months — and the Bayou State’s current rate is a much more tolerable 6.3%.
  • Seasonally adjusted payroll employment per the Establishment Survey fell by 12,000, and is up by only 19,800 in the past 12 months.
  • Seasonally adjusted employment per the Household Survey increased by only 7,000 in November, and is roughly 31,400 lower than it was in November 2012 (not seasonally adjusted, it’s just under 17,000 lower).

Several states have notably outperformed Ohio in the past year or so:

  • Florida’s unemployment rate was much higher than Ohio’s for quite some time. 12 months ago, the Sunshine State was at 8.0%. Now, at 6.4%, it’s a full point lower than Ohio.
  • Indiana’s unemployment rate, which was also much higher than Ohio’s during most of the past several years, is now a tick lower, at 7.3%. (Right to work, anyone?)
  • North Carolina, which was a complete basket case under a Democratic governor before this year (Nov. 2012 uenmployment rate: 9.4%), now has the same unemployment rate as the Buckeye State.
  • Even Nikki Haley’s South Carolina, which struggled mightily during the first 2-3 post-recession years, has gone from 8.6% to 7.1% in the past year.
  • On top of that, Chris Christie’s New Jersey (from 9.6% to 7.8% in the past 12 months) is closing in.

If there’s a meaningful silver lining in any of this, except Metro Columbus, as usual (not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate: 6.1%), I couldn’t find it.

The Buckeye State economy is stagnating. Is anyone in Columbus paying attention?

November 22, 2013

Maybe This Will Get John Kasich to Work on Fixing Ohio’s Economy Instead of Bragging About It

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 3:39 pm

Here are the basics; all figures are seasonally adjusted.

Ohio’s Unemployment Rate:
– October 2012 — 6.9%
– August 2013 — 7.3%
– September 2013 — 7.4%
– October 2013 — 7.5%

National Unemployment Rate:
– October 2012 — 7.9%
– October 2013 — 7.3%

Ohio’s Jobs Added (these are not typos):
– Month of September 2013; +200 (Establishment Survey)
– Month of October 2013; +400 (Establishment Survey)
– 12 months ended Oct. 2013; +27,200 (Establishment Survey)
– 12 months ended Oct. 2013; LOSS of 33,200 (Household Survey; proof here)

In 12 months, Ohio has gone from far better to a bit worse than the rest of the nation in unemployment. By contrast, Florida, to name just one example, has gone from 8.2% unemployment a year ago to 6.7% in October 2013.

Ohio’s payroll job growth has been dismal. Including contractors and the self-employed, the state has lost employment. In the past five months, employment per the Household Survey has dropped by 44,500.

Could Team Kasich and the Ohio GOP please spare us their paeans to Ohio’s supposedly great economy? It hasn’t been great for well over a year.

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UPDATE: Those who are concerned about Census Bureau’s alleged book-cooking might point out that the numbers from a year ago could have been inflated. I won’t deny that issue, but it doesn’t change the fact that Ohio’s position relative to other states has badly deteriorated.

Here are a few states (I don’t think I caught them all) whose unemployment rates were higher than Ohio’s a year ago but are lower now: AL, CO, DE, FL, ME, WA, and WV.

Only two states besides Ohio have seen their unemployment rate go up 0.6 points in the past year: LA (the unemployment rate is still 6.5%) and TN. No other state has seen a greater increase in their unemployment rate.

UPDATE 2: A year ago, Indiana’s unemployment rate was 1.5 points higher than Ohio’s. Now it’s the same. (Right to work, anyone?)

November 12, 2013

Homestead Exemption News for Ohioans Age 65 and Over

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:00 am

Received this in an email. It’s worth relaying, and is relevant to ALL Ohio homeowners over Age 65.

To Ohio Residents Age 65 or Older Who Have Not Filed for the Ohio Homestead Exemption:

If you have previously filed for the Ohio Homestead Exemption no further action is required. Going forward you are grandfathered to receive the exemption without income limitation. If you are turning 65 this year or are already 65 and have not previously filed then you’ll want to read on.

The Ohio Homestead Exemption allows qualifying homeowners to exempt $25,000 of the market value of their home from all local property taxes. For example, a home with a market value of $100,000 would be billed as if it is worth $75,000, saving about $400 per year.

Beginning in 2014, unless you have previously filed and are grandfathered in, only those with Ohio Adjusted Gross Income below $30,000 will be eligible for the exemption. For 2013 the filing deadline has been extended from June 3rd to December 31st to allow time to file under the current law and to be grandfathered in for future years without income limitation.

Don’t miss this opportunity if you have not yet applied.

October 28, 2013

Our Chutzpah Award of the Day …

… goes to the guy who just last week went around the legislature to get $2.6 billion a year in “free” federal money, but had the nerve to send the following email:

While Congress came up with an agreement on the debt limit and avoided a major blow to our nation’s credibility, the core problem facing our country still exists.

America has a skyrocketing national debt and it is simply not sustainable. If our leaders don’t act quickly to rein in the size of government, we’re crushing future generations with a massive financial burden.

Now is the time to do the responsible thing, like we’ve done in Ohio, and mandate in the Constitution that we balance our budget. We owe it to our kids and grandkids to govern responsibly and within our means like American families do every day.

… You can also watch … (a) short video from the Republican Governor’s Association that discusses Ohio’s Comeback story.

The National Media are starting to take notice that while Washington is stuck in gridlock, states led by Republicans are managing their budgets responsibly, lowering taxes, reducing the size of government, and as a result are leading the nation in job creation.

Ohio has a great story to tell about our comeback and with your help, we can keep up the momentum.

We’re all in this together and with your help, we can get it done.

-John

I’ll hopefully have more on that “comeback story” later.

September 20, 2013

Another Month of Poor Buckeye State Employment Results — Again, Except in Columbus (See Updates)

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 12:36 pm

It would sure be a lot more fun if I could relay good news about the job market in Ohio. Sadly, I can’t — as usual, except for Metro Columbus.

The latest Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report from the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics came out this morning. Its Household Survey component tells us that the Buckeye State’s unemployment rate inched up to a seasonally adjusted 7.3 percent in August, making it the same as the rest of the nation.

For quite a while, the state’s rate had been over a full point lower than the rest of the U.S. No more.

Meanwhile, the Establishment Survey of employers tells us that Ohio:

  • Lost 8,200 seasonally adjusted jobs in August after gaining a downwardly revised 3,200 in July.
  • Has gained only 32,500 jobs in the past 12 months.

A dive into the BLS’s databases reveals that Ohio has only gained 3,300 jobs since February.

But if you live within or around the I-270 Beltway, i.e., in Metro Columbus, things are soooo much better.

The Columbus metro area’s July unemployment rate (the Household Survey hasn’t been updated at the metro level yet) was 6.3 percent, a full point below where the rest of the state was in August. Columbus’s unemployment rate probably did not go up in August.

The Establishment Survey says that Columbus gained 2,400 seasonally adjusted payroll jobs in August, meaning that the rest of the state lost 10,600. In the past six months, Columbus has gained 16,000 payroll jobs, an employment increase of almost 1.7 percent. The rest of the state has therefore lost 12,700.

Oh, and the state’s seasonally adjusted workforce shrank by over 13,000 in August (over 24,000 in the past two months). I’ll betcha none or almost none of that shrinkage occurred in Metro Columbus.

Again, it’s no fun to say this, but Metro Columbus continues to prosper, arguably at the expense of the rest of the Buckeye State.

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UPDATE, 2:25 p.m.: Here’s what has happened in Ohio and its major metro areas per the Establishment Survey in the past 12 and 24 months (not seasonally adjusted):

OhioEmploymentGrowth12and24mos0813

Percentage employment growth has been twice as fast in Metro Columbus than it has been in the rest of the state.

This is the good news. The more inclusive Household Survey data at the metro level comes out towards the end of this month, and you can virtually take it to the bank that it will show a far greater disparity between Columbus and the rest of the state.

UPDATE 2, Sept. 21: In a partial defense of Ohio, the BLS has Ohio’s seasonally adjusted unemploymment rate 0.1 points higher than a year ago (from 7.2% to 7.3% in Table 3) even though the not seasonally adjusted (i.e. actual) rate of 6.9% is lower than Auugst 2012′s 7.0% (Table 4). So the state can still legitimately claim a sliver of overall improvement in the past 12 months.

September 3, 2013

Columbus vs. the Rest of Ohio Update (See Charts at End of Post)

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:03 pm

Looking at not seasonally adjusted data during the past 12 and 24 months, it’s more than obvious that Metro Columbus has done well during John Kasich’s gubernatorial term, while the vast majority of the rest of the state has not:

OHIOemploymentAndLFtoJuly2013

First, let’s look at the data set which is less damning, namely that from the federal government’s Establishment Survey of employers (first and third sections in the table above).

Metro Columbus, which has about 17 percent of all statewide employment (and rising), has seen percentage job growth of roughly double of that seen in the rest of the state (5.20 percent during past 24 months in Columbus vs. 2.88 percent elsewhere), and a bit more than double the rate seen in the 12 other Buckeye State metro areas the government tracks. Even Columbus has seen a bit of a slowdown during the past 12 months compared to the previous 12.

But it’s the more inclusive Household Survey’s results (second and fourth sections in the table) which show how Columbus is holding its own, though less impressively, while the rest of the state suffers. The Household Survey picks up self-employment and contract employment the Establishment Survey of payrolls does not. The Household Survey also tells us what is happening to the total labor force, which includes those working and those who are looking for work (but not workforce dropouts or discouraged workers).

Columbus’s labor force has grown in each of the past two years. The rest of Ohio’s labor force shrank seriously during the 12 months ended in July 2012, and has barely grown during the past 12 months. With the exception of Canton-Massillon (detail not presented here), every other major metro area in the state has seen its workforce contract during the past two years. All of Ohio except Columbus has seen a shrinkage of over 66,000.

Household Survey employment growth in Columbus during the past two years has been almost 3 percent. In the rest of the state, it has been 0.47 percent, only one-sixth of that. Only Akron and Toledo at +1.71 percent and +1.69 percent, respectively (not detailed here) have seen meaningful Household Survey employment growth in the past two years.

In the past 12 months, over 97 percent of Ohio’s Household Survey job additions have occurred in Columbus. Other metro areas have picked up an unimpressive 10,000 jobs. That gain has been almost entirely offset by jobs lost in non-metro areas, leaving the rest of the state with almost invisible employment growth of +0.01 percent.

All of this is summarized in the two ugly charts (if you don’t live or work in Metro Columbus) below:

OhioEmpAndLFgrowthChartTo0713

This is not an acceptable situation, but apparently the folks running state government in Columbus don’t mind it. Otherwise, they’d be doing something about it. From all appearances, they’re not.

I guess as long as things are okay within and around the I-270 Beltway, what’s happening in the rest of the state doesn’t matter.

What else are we to conclude?

August 30, 2013

Acceptable News For the I-270 Beltway …

Filed under: Ohio Economy — Tom @ 10:13 pm

… and bad news for most of the rest of the state.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey:

OhioAndCbusHouseholdSurvey0713

It really requires no further explanation.

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UPDATE: Well, I’ll clarify one thing upon further review, namely that the past 12 months have been acceptable in context in Akron and Toledo, which makes the unacceptability everywhere else that much more glaring.

August 26, 2013

Ohio’s Economy Has Produced an Unacceptable Number of Private-Sector Jobs in the Past 12 Months

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 1:20 pm

Of all the annoyances in the world, this one’s nowhere near the top of the list. But it is annoying, and since it comes what’s supposed to be the home team, it deserves vetting.

The annoyance, constantly pounded by ORPINO (the Ohio Republican Party In Name Only) in its emails, is the true but spectacularly unimpressive claim that Ohio has added 174,700 private-sector jobs since January 2011.

Well, 174,700 is a big-sounding number. But where does this put Ohio compared to other states, and what has the Republican-dominated government and legislature done to make job creation in Ohio easier lately?

I’ll get to the lately part, defined as the past 12 months, right now. The answer is “not much, compared to other neighboring and midwestern states:

OhioAndOthJobGrowthJuly2012toJuly2013

Ohio is 46th in seasonally percentage job growth during the past 12 months.

Okay, this is overall job growth and not the private sector. Fine, let’s look at the private sector during the past year for the same eight states:

OhioAndOthPvtJobGrowthJuly2012toJuly2013

Ohio is sixth among the eight states under review (the not seasonally adjusted numbers have Ohio barely in 5th; its 62,400 jobs added represents 1.40% employment growth over 12 months, edging out Illinois at 1.39%).

I haven’t looked at all 50 states and DC, but I seriously doubt that Ohio’s private-sector job growth in the past year is anywhere near the top half of all states and DC.

The news gets worse if you look at the Household Survey employment numbers instead of the Establishment Survey’s payroll employment numbers, and even worse when you segregate Ohio’s own politician-dominated beltway in and around Columbus from the rest of the state. That work will follow later when the metro numbers are released later this week.

ORPINO and the Kasich administration are going to have to concoct some other way to impress Ohioans.

Hey, how about jettisoning that ill-advised quadrupling of the severance tax and abandoning Medicaid expansion? Not doing these two things is clearly holding back job growth — just about everywhere but in Metro Columbus, that is.