August 19, 2014

Ohio’s Dems: Maybe They’re Just Trying to Lose

Filed under: Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 3:10 pm

The latest exposed escapades involving Ohio’s statewide Democratic Party, uh, ticket:

Democratic Candidate For Ohio AG Repeatedly Ticketed

Democratic attorney general candidate David Pepper has paid nearly $10,000 in parking fines over the past 14 years after being ticketed more than 180 times, according to records reviewed by The Associated Press.

Hamilton County court records show Pepper, who faces Republican incumbent Mike DeWine this fall, was ticketed mostly for parking at meters that had expired or in no-parking or truck loading zones. He also was ticketed about a dozen times for displaying expired plates.

The AP review shows Pepper was cited an average of 13 times a year, most recently in July. The bulk of the tickets came from 2007 to 2009, while he was county commissioner. Fines ranged from $14 to $100, some doubled because they were paid late.

“Amid a hectic schedule, mostly years back, David got too many tickets, and he paid them,” Koltak said. “He’s happy to debate old parking tickets versus Mike DeWine’s current practices as attorney general.”

I dunno, maybe Pepper should argue that he was helpnig the county balance its books.

Congrats to Associated Press reporter Julie Carr Smyth for digging up and exposing this.

Maybe the Democrats can turn around their statewide campaigns by promising not to drive while in office … except who would believe them?

May 28, 2014

Ohio Update: Recent Job Growth Is Decent, But the Statewide Workforce Is Still Shrinking; Most of the State Continues to Suffer While Metro Columbus Prospers

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics — Tom @ 12:03 pm

The good news is that Ohio’s official unemployment rate has fallen sharply during the first four months of 2014. After staying above 7 percent during all of 2013, the rate is now a seasonally adjusted 5.7 percent, and is finally meaningfully below the national rate, currently at 6.3 percent.

But the news is far from all good.

Preliminary results indicate that Ohio employers, both public and private, added 12,600 seasonally adjusted payroll jobs in April. That’s a strong number, and I hope it doesn’t get revised away. But that’s what the state’s economy really needs to be adding every month — and it hasn’t been. Only 55,300 payroll jobs have been added in the past 12 months; Ohio is #29 in the nation in percentage employment growth during that time. Take out April’s preliminary number, and that leaves 42,700, an average of less than 4,000 during the previous 11 months. Total payroll employment of 5.298 million is still 156,000 below the March 2007 peak of 5.454 million.

Since Team Kasich likes to crow about private sector jobs added, let’s look at that:

OhioPrivateSectorJobs0104to0414

Yes, since January of 2011, Ohio’s private-sector employers have added 252,000 jobs. But total private-sector employment is still almost 112,000 shy of the March 2006 peak. Adding 6,500 private-sector jobs per month (rounded), as the state’s economy has done since John Kasich became governor, will get Ohio back to its pre-recession private-sector employment peak in September or October of 2015. I don’t recall Kasich basing his 2010 campaign on the idea of taking almost five years to achieve a turnaround.

The recent employment news from the Household Survey is better, but it has needed to be — and there’s a long, long way to go.

During all of 2013, fewer than 15,000 additional Buckeye State residents found employment. In 2014 (seasonally adjusted), almost 66,000 more found work in just four months. But after basically holding steady all of last year, Ohio’s workforce has shrunk by almost 17,000. The state’s workforce is 64,000, or about 1.1 percent, smaller now than it was in January 2011, even after declining by almost 153,000 during the preceding 48 months. Household Survey employment is still over 230,000 below its December 2006 peak. The state’s economy has only regained about 40 percent of the 389,000 Household Survey jobs which were shed before things finally bottomed out in September 2010. At that rate, full Household Survey jobs recovery will occur sometime during the summer of 2019 (seriously — and excluding the first four months of the 43-month period involved and using a Kasich-only average slightly worsens the result).

Now let’s look at the other bug in Ohio’s job-market performance, namely how the recovery has been great in Metro Columbus, and mediocre or worse in most of the rest of the state. I’m using not seasonally adjusted figures for the past 36 months, since not all data is available on a seasonally adjusted basis:

ColumbusAndOhioAndUSjobGrowth36mosApril2014

Household Survey employment growth in Metro Columbus is four times greater than what we’ve seen in the rest of the state. The rest of the state’s Household Survey employment growth is less than one-third of the overall U.S growth rate.

The news in Establishment Survey payroll growth isn’t as awful, but it’s unacceptable. Columbus has added payroll jobs at over double the rate in the rest of state, which in turn badly trails the national average.

Additionally, while Columbus’s workforce has grown by over 19,000 in the past 36 months, the rest of the state’s workforce has contracted by almost 95,000.

Except for Columbus, it’s safe to say that Ohio is losing a lot of existing and potential productive workers (i.e., college grads) either to other states or to general discouragement.

One has to wonder how much different the rest of the state’s results would have been if the Kasich administration hadn’t continually threatened to quadruple the severance tax on oil and gas extraction. When resources to be had are available in multiple states, companies choose the path of least resistance in deciding where they will deploy their equipment. I believe that further investigation would reveal that other states have seen much faster growth in fracking and other forms of extraction during that past three years than Ohio has.

Fortunately for John Kasich, he’s facing one of the worst opponents ever in this fall’s general election. Unfortunately for him, he’s not running for “County Executive of Franklin and Surrounding Counties.” He’s trying to be reelected governor of the entire Buckeye State. If his bumbling opponent figures out a way to leverage the rest of the state’s misery and credibly blame the incumbent, what possible response (other than to claim that Edward FitzGerald would be worse — which is likely the case, but no one can prove that) will Mr. “New Way, New Day” have?

May 7, 2014

WaPo’s Costa: Boehner ‘Swatted Away’ Primary Opposition, Which Got a Possible Record 31% of Vote

Robert Costa’s disdain for Tea Party-sympathetic conservatives was quite evident tonight in his coverage of Republican House Speaker John Boehner’s primary victory at the Washington Post. Costa, a former writer at National Review, even insulted the noble pursuits of justice and the truth regarding Benghazi and the IRS’s targeting of conservative and other groups by calling them “red meat for the tea party faithful.”

The WaPo reporter characterized Boeher as having “swatted away” his opposition without revealing that the Speaker got only 69 percent of the vote. Yes, I wrote “only.” Costa himself noted that “a sitting speaker still has never been defeated in a primary election,” but didn’t disclose Boehner’s percentage of the vote. That’s odd to say the least. I don’t recall a sitting speaker ever losing 31 percent of the vote in a party primary, and it’s possible that it has never happened outside of circumstances involving scandal or crime. I certainly don’t recall a sitting speaker opening his wallet to defend his seat in a primary as Boehner did. Excerpts and analysis follow the jump (bolds are mine):

(more…)

May 6, 2014

In Epic Fail, ORPINO Wastes Mega-$$$ in Smear Campaign, Fails to Fend Off Tom Brinkman

Filed under: Activism,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:08 pm

Despite spending thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars to smear the challenger and defend their incumbent, ORPINO (the Ohio Republican Party In Name Only) suffered a major defeat in Southwestern Ohio tonight.

Republican primary voters in the 27th District State Rep race have ousted wishy-washy, Common Core-supporting, go-along get-along incumbent Peter Stautberg in favor of challenger and true conservative Tom Brinkman:

BrinkmanVsStautberg

It probably helped Brinkman that the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsed … Stautberg.

Intense thanks go to Brinkman supporters whose door-to-door, phone-to-phone and grass-roots campaign trumped ORPINO Chairman Matt Borges’s literature and airwaves war.

May 1, 2014

Ohio Primary Issue 1: The 1851 Center for Constitutional Law Say Vote ‘No’; I Agree

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:00 am

From the 1851 Center for Constitutional Law (HT to an emailer; bolds are mine):

Ohio Taxpayers Beware: State Issue 1
Proposed Constitutional Amendment would further increase already-historically-high state spending, result in tax increases

Columbus, OH – The 1851 Center for Constitutional Law today took action to educate on and warn Ohio taxpayers of State Issue 1, which will appear on the May 6, 2014 primary ballot.

State Issue 1 proposes to amend the Ohio Constitution “to fund public infrastructure capital improvements by permitting the issuance of general obligation bonds.” Essentially, the state seeks to borrow and spend money it does not currently have to address roads, bridges, wastewater treatment systems, water supply systems, and other infrastructure spending. State legislators voted, at the end of 2013, to place State Issue 1 on the May 6, 2014 ballot through passing Joint Resolution 6 (“SJR 6″).

There has been very little public debate on the issue leading up to the election, and many citizens are largely unaware of the details of proposed amendment. Accordingly, in its Policy Briefing on State Issue 1, released today, the 1851 Center explained the following:

  • The proposed constitutional amendment explicitly authorizes its new spending to be paid for through taxation, and if enacted, would almost necessarily result in a tax increase.
  • The proposed amendment would mandate an additional $1.875 Billion in spending at a time when Ohio has just implemented a state budget that is the largest in its history, and growing significantly larger each year. (In 2013, Ohio’s state government spent a record $27.4 Billion. In 2014, state spending is set to rise by an astounding 10.3 percent, to $30.2 Billion).
  • The proposed amendment would undermine Ohio’s constitutional balanced budget requirement and debt ceiling by unbalancing the Budget and exceeding the current debt limits; and by circumventing the budget process, the passage of State Issue 1 would likely create perverse political incentives that could further escalate state spending in the future.
  • Passage of Issue 1 will not “create jobs” because there is no evidence that government spending projects like this create jobs, rather than simply rearranging their location in the economy: while government spends more, Ohioans will have less disposal income, and will spend less to facilitate job creation.

“Given recent spending increases at the state level, passage of State Issue 1 is likely if not certain to increase taxes, undermine Ohio’s balanced budget requirement, further expand already historically large state spending and indebtedness, create perverse political incentives and cronyism, legitimize the notion of state spending as a viable means of job creation, further clutter an already bloated-beyond-recognition section of the Ohio Constitution, and redistribute wealth from poor and middle-class Ohioans to wealthy out-of-state investors,” said Maurice Thompson, Executive Director of the 1851 Center.

“Those considerations are sufficient to cause us to consider Issue 1 a poor reason to amend the Ohio Constitution – - Ohioans’ foundational compact with government.”

Ohioans appear particularly unaware that the proposed amendment specifically obligates the use of taxes to pay for the spending, meaning that spending must either be cut elsewhere, or taxes on the public will necessarily increase over time to pay for the spending.

The proposed Section 2s(D) explicitly contemplates that that the additional $2 Billion in spending will be paid for through “the full faith and credit, revenue, and taxing power of the state,” “excises, taxes, and revenues so pledged,” and “the levy, collection, and application of sufficient excises, taxes, and revenues to the extent needed for that purpose.”

A state debt study released in early 2014 by State Budget Solutions – - a national think tank – - concluded that even without the passage of Issue 1, Ohio already maintains the nation’s 4th-highest state debt per capita, second highest debt as a percentage of gross state product, and second highest debt as a percentage of spending.

The Center’s Policy Brief is here.

This should be an obvious “no” vote. I particularly resent the idea that the issue is on the primary ballot — a move that reeks of cynical politics.

April 27, 2014

Latest PJ Media Column (‘‘Facts’ and ‘Lies’ in an Ohio Free-Speech Case’) Is Up

Filed under: Activism,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:26 am

It’s here.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog on Tuesday morning (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

April 5, 2014

John Kasich’s Calamity

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:59 am

And Ohio’s Governor wants to be President.

__________________________________

This column went up at PJ Media Wednesday evening and was teased here at BizzyBlog on Thursday.

__________________________________

In 2010, Ohioans longing for genuine reform after decade upon decade of virtually uninterrupted tax-and-spend government finally thought they had found their change agent in former congressman John Kasich.

The state hadn’t seen anything resembling conservative governance since the first year or so of Republican George Voinovich’s gubernatorial reign during the early 1990s. But just 15 months after what had been an impressive start, Voinovich began pushing for tax increases on booze and cigarettes. By the end of his second year, he and pliant Republican legislators were plotting soak-the-rich schemes. In 1996, Voinovich was the only Republican governor in America to receive a fiscal policy “F” from the Cato Institute. By that time, Republicans in the General Assembly were complaining that they needed equal time to respond to Voinovich’s annual left-leaning State of the State addresses.

Under Bob Taft, things got even worse. After treading water during his first term, Taft in 2003 seriously sullied his ancestors’ Republican and conservative legacies by ramming massive tax increases through the General Assembly. An alleged tax reform effort in 2005 barely nibbled around the edges while adding a horrid gross receipts levy to the mix. When a scandal-plagued Taft left office, Ohio’s business tax climate was fourth-worst in the nation.

Before the Voinovich era, Democrat Dick Celeste raised the income tax by 90 percent. After the Taft era, Democrat Ted Strickland allowed the spending spree which his predecessor had enabled to continue unchecked, even as the state’s economy went into free-fall. Over 400,000 jobs, a shocking 8 percent of statewide employment, disappeared.

The time could not have been more ripe for a genuine conservative to come in and not only right the ship, but also return Ohio’s economy, after over 30 years of watching other states pass it by, to a prosperous trajectory.

Kasich certainly looked like the guy who could and would do it. During the 2010 Buckeye State governor’s race, he repeatedly told audiences that “I was in the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party,” and with good reason. While in Congress, he “was the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives’ Budget Committee in 1997 that balanced the nation’s budget for the first time in more than 30 years.” He selected State Auditor Mary Taylor as his running mate largely because, while a state representative, she had defied the establishment by voting against Taft’s tax increases.

Despite passive-aggressive obstruction by the state’s Republican Party chairman and a desperate, media-assisted smear campaign by Strickland, Kasich become the first challenger to defeat a sitting Buckeye State governor in 36 years.

To his credit, Kasich did right the fiscal ship. His first two-year budget closed the projected $8 billion budget gap Stickland had left behind without increasing taxes. He enthusiastically signed a repeal of the state’s death tax. He made some progress cutting an overgrown bureaucracy. The state’s economy responded by generating over 90,000 jobs and growing by 2.9 percent during his first 12 full months in office. Both figures significantly outpaced the averages in the rest of the U.S.

Unfortunately, Kasich and state Republicans suffered a serious political setback in November 2011, when voters decisively torpedoed their attempt to enact collective bargaining reforms analogous to those successfully implemented by Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Since then, the Governor has been a different person, and his policies have veered into places even George Voinovich and Bob Taft wouldn’t go.

His reaction to the fracking boom has been to propose a 400 percent increase in the severance tax while ramping up the rhetoric against “big oil.”

After opposing Obamacre, Kasich turned around and championed Medicaid expansion. He spent months trying to shame opponents into supporting him by playing the “Christian” card, i.e., “You’re not really a Christian if you won’t support this.” When legislators still balked, he went around them and took his case to the Controlling Board, an obscure state agency which normally deals with completely unrelated matters. When it looked like the sitting members of the Controlling Board wouldn’t do his bidding, the Governor had the House Speaker arbitrarily replace two members who planned to oppose the move with supportive lackeys. The Wall Street Journal correctly described Kasich’s heavy-handed move as “lawless.” Washington isn’t the only place where tyranny, i.e., “arbitrary or unrestrained exercise of power; despotic abuse of authority,” has gained a foothold.

As with Voinovich and Taft, Kasich’s budget unsustainably expands spending by an anticipated average of over 5 percent per year through fiscal 2015. Half of that would still be way too much.

Ohio’s economy has responded as one would expect: poorly. Despite the strong head start, statewide payroll employment growth during the 37 months which ended in February now trails the rest of the nation — and over half of that growth has been in Metro Columbus, where payrolls have grown at triple the rate seen in the stagnating rest of the state. In the three years ended in January, the statewide labor force outside of Columbus shrunk by 64,000.

Luckily for Kasich, the Democrat opposing his reelection is best referred to as the Wreck That Is Edward FitzGerald. Thus, he will probably win reelection even after dissing the people who gave him his victory margin the first time around.

In late March, while touting Ohio’s fictional “economic turnaround,” Kasich refused to answer Chris Wallace’s repeated questions on Fox News Sunday about whether he was considering a presidential run in 2016. I take that evasiveness to mean that he’s serious about it. One year of strong governance followed by several lousy ones doesn’t get it, John.

April 3, 2014

Latest PJ Media Column (‘John Kasich’s Calamity’) Is Up

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:21 am

It went up here late Wednesday Pacific Time.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog Saturday morning (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

_______________________________________

Left on the cutting room floor: John Kasich is trying to appease the growing anti-Common Core wave (links added by me) —

In Ohio, a public hearing on a state bill to repeal Common Core lasted six hours, until 1 a.m., because angry tea partiers were lining up to give House Education Committee Chairman Gerald Stebelton a piece of their minds. The Republican was dubbed “Stompyfeet Stebelton” by the tea-party-affiliated group Education Freedom Ohio for his lack of enthusiasm for repealing Common Core.

Stebelton is term-limited after this year, so tea-party groups are focusing on John Kasich, Ohio’s GOP governor, who is up for reelection and has backtracked on his initial support for Common Core. They are pushing him to say he supports legislation to repeal it.

Complicating matters, Kasich appears to be good friends with Common Core champion Jeb Bush, and would probably be burning a bridge if he came out for repeal. The guess here is that he and his peeps have figured out that it’s a disaster, and are biding their time to see how consequential the Common Core opposition is before doing anything.

My response: Stand for something, John.

January 6, 2014

I Wasn’t Even Looking For This (on Job Declines in Metro Cleveland) …

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:03 am

… but it found me, when I was looking to see when the next Metro Area Employment and Unemployment Report covering November comes out (that will be tomorrow).

It was in the “Retrospective Summary of September 2013 Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment” at the end of October’s report (link will be overridden by November’s report tomorrow), done because the Bureau of Labor Statistics skipped issuing a September report because of the 17% government shutdown (figures are seasonally adjusted):

The largest over-the-year decrease in employment (from Sept. 2012 to Sept. 2013) occurred in Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio (-7,200), followed by Poughkeepsie, Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y. (-3,300), and Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. (-3,200). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Decatur, Ill. (-4.7 percent), Manhattan, Kan. (-3.1 percent), and Ocean City, N.J. (-3.0 percent).

To be fair to our northeastern Buckeye State buds, I looked up the stats as presented and revised for October and November (which seems to have been posted prematurely):

MetroClevelandPRjobs0102to1113

The “good” news is that September’s year-over-year shortfall is now “only” 5,400.

The bad news is that the October and November year-over-year job declines increased to amounts even greater than what was originally reported for September, i.e., to 7,500 and 7,800, respectively.

The really bad news is that Metro Cleveland is still almost 66,000 jobs shy of its pre-recession peak of 1.079 million in April 2006, and has recovered less than 30% of the 92,500 jobs lost from that month to March 2010 (26,800 jobs gained since March 2010 divided by 92,500 is 29%).

I’ll leave it to readers to mutter their own Team Kasich economic malaise comments.

___________________________________

UPDATE: The seasonally adjusted 12-month decline per the Household Survey is just over 9,000 as of November. It was almost 12,000 back in April, narrowed from that point until September, and is headed the wrong way again.

The November 2013 v. 2012 not seasonally adjusted difference — more accurate because it’s supposed to reflect what’s actually there — was over 12,500.

UPDATE 2, Jan. 7: The Cleveland Plain Dealer pointed to the not seasonally adjusted Establishment Survey in reporting that November’s year-over-year Metro Cleveland employment drop was 8,100.

January 2, 2014

The Challenge For Ohio’s Establishment Challengers in the Governor’s Race

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:42 am

On the Democratic side, Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune is challenging the party’s clear favorite, Ed Fitzgerald.

The reaction on the left is predictable. Basically, it’s “who the h*ll are you?”; “how dare you?”; and (ROTFLMAO) “you’re conservative!!

Today, Clermont County resident and former Ohio Liberty Coalition President Ted Stevenot is making his challenge to incumbent Republican Governor John Kasich official.

I haven’t seen any direct establishment reax to Stevenot’s annuncement, but I really don’t have to. It will basically be the same as that seen on the left, though perhaps in a more moderate tone and accompanied by the claim that “You’re TOO conservative!!”

Both establishments’ candidates, based on their records, represent another four years of drift the Buckeye State can ill afford.

The challenge for Portune and Stevenot is to convince their respective establishments that they are more than “protest” candidates — i.e., that they have a legitimate shot at getting hordes of their supporters to the polls who will ignore the poll watchers and the threats to anyone who dares to be a donor and give their candidate a legitimate shot at winning.

I’m not saying it can’t be done, and I certainly don’t wish to discourage the efforts. But I must observe that I have yet to see anyone pull off a successful challenge such as this in Ohio at the gubernatorial level in my lifetime.

That said, have at it, guys.

December 20, 2013

November: Another Weak Month in Ohio’s Job Market

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:19 am

The key stats from today’s regional and state report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

  • Ohio’s November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% from 7.5% in October, moving from 0.2 points above October’s national average of 7.3% to 0.4 points above November’s 7.0%. 12 months ago, Ohio’s unemployment rate was 6.8%. Only Louisiana has seen its unemployment rate go up by an much as Ohio in the past 12 months — and the Bayou State’s current rate is a much more tolerable 6.3%.
  • Seasonally adjusted payroll employment per the Establishment Survey fell by 12,000, and is up by only 19,800 in the past 12 months.
  • Seasonally adjusted employment per the Household Survey increased by only 7,000 in November, and is roughly 31,400 lower than it was in November 2012 (not seasonally adjusted, it’s just under 17,000 lower).

Several states have notably outperformed Ohio in the past year or so:

  • Florida’s unemployment rate was much higher than Ohio’s for quite some time. 12 months ago, the Sunshine State was at 8.0%. Now, at 6.4%, it’s a full point lower than Ohio.
  • Indiana’s unemployment rate, which was also much higher than Ohio’s during most of the past several years, is now a tick lower, at 7.3%. (Right to work, anyone?)
  • North Carolina, which was a complete basket case under a Democratic governor before this year (Nov. 2012 uenmployment rate: 9.4%), now has the same unemployment rate as the Buckeye State.
  • Even Nikki Haley’s South Carolina, which struggled mightily during the first 2-3 post-recession years, has gone from 8.6% to 7.1% in the past year.
  • On top of that, Chris Christie’s New Jersey (from 9.6% to 7.8% in the past 12 months) is closing in.

If there’s a meaningful silver lining in any of this, except Metro Columbus, as usual (not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate: 6.1%), I couldn’t find it.

The Buckeye State economy is stagnating. Is anyone in Columbus paying attention?

October 28, 2013

Our Chutzpah Award of the Day …

… goes to the guy who just last week went around the legislature to get $2.6 billion a year in “free” federal money, but had the nerve to send the following email:

While Congress came up with an agreement on the debt limit and avoided a major blow to our nation’s credibility, the core problem facing our country still exists.

America has a skyrocketing national debt and it is simply not sustainable. If our leaders don’t act quickly to rein in the size of government, we’re crushing future generations with a massive financial burden.

Now is the time to do the responsible thing, like we’ve done in Ohio, and mandate in the Constitution that we balance our budget. We owe it to our kids and grandkids to govern responsibly and within our means like American families do every day.

… You can also watch … (a) short video from the Republican Governor’s Association that discusses Ohio’s Comeback story.

The National Media are starting to take notice that while Washington is stuck in gridlock, states led by Republicans are managing their budgets responsibly, lowering taxes, reducing the size of government, and as a result are leading the nation in job creation.

Ohio has a great story to tell about our comeback and with your help, we can keep up the momentum.

We’re all in this together and with your help, we can get it done.

-John

I’ll hopefully have more on that “comeback story” later.

October 12, 2013

Kasich Has Betrayed Ohio

Filed under: Health Care,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 2:10 pm

Received from Tom Zawistowski last night (bolds are mine):

KASICH MOVE TO BY-PASS LEGISLATURE ON MEDICAID EXPANSION
SHOWS GOVERNOR COULD NOT MAKE HIS CASE TO CONSERVATIVES

Conservative leaders reacted negatively today, as Governor Kasich moved to by-pass the Ohio Legislature and implement Medicaid Expansion through the Ohio Controlling Board. Portage County TEA Party Executive Director, Tom Zawistowski, said “The Governor simply could not make his case to conservatives about Medicaid Expansion. He is now going to take 300,000, able-bodied, healthy Ohioans, and give them free health care, while the rest of us are seeing insurance premiums going up 80% and deductibles are going throughout the roof to help pay for it. He has turned his back on his own state party, the national Republican Party and, by our polling, 75% of the registered Republicans in the state. These are the people who elected him into office. He has simply betrayed the 66% of all Ohioans who voted to stop Obamacare by passing the Ohio Health Care Amendment with majorities in all 88 counties in 2011. This will certainly affect his re-election bid in 2014 and that of any Republican who stands with him on Medicaid Expansion.”

The TEA Party is not a political party but a grassroots cultural movement. … The acronym TEA stands for Totally Engaged Americans.

In this case, “E” also stands for (completely and utterly) “Exasperated” and “Estranged.”

Oh, and “Energized.” To stop this unilateral abuse of gubernatorial authority.

September 3, 2013

Columbus vs. the Rest of Ohio Update (See Charts at End of Post)

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:03 pm

Looking at not seasonally adjusted data during the past 12 and 24 months, it’s more than obvious that Metro Columbus has done well during John Kasich’s gubernatorial term, while the vast majority of the rest of the state has not:

OHIOemploymentAndLFtoJuly2013

First, let’s look at the data set which is less damning, namely that from the federal government’s Establishment Survey of employers (first and third sections in the table above).

Metro Columbus, which has about 17 percent of all statewide employment (and rising), has seen percentage job growth of roughly double of that seen in the rest of the state (5.20 percent during past 24 months in Columbus vs. 2.88 percent elsewhere), and a bit more than double the rate seen in the 12 other Buckeye State metro areas the government tracks. Even Columbus has seen a bit of a slowdown during the past 12 months compared to the previous 12.

But it’s the more inclusive Household Survey’s results (second and fourth sections in the table) which show how Columbus is holding its own, though less impressively, while the rest of the state suffers. The Household Survey picks up self-employment and contract employment the Establishment Survey of payrolls does not. The Household Survey also tells us what is happening to the total labor force, which includes those working and those who are looking for work (but not workforce dropouts or discouraged workers).

Columbus’s labor force has grown in each of the past two years. The rest of Ohio’s labor force shrank seriously during the 12 months ended in July 2012, and has barely grown during the past 12 months. With the exception of Canton-Massillon (detail not presented here), every other major metro area in the state has seen its workforce contract during the past two years. All of Ohio except Columbus has seen a shrinkage of over 66,000.

Household Survey employment growth in Columbus during the past two years has been almost 3 percent. In the rest of the state, it has been 0.47 percent, only one-sixth of that. Only Akron and Toledo at +1.71 percent and +1.69 percent, respectively (not detailed here) have seen meaningful Household Survey employment growth in the past two years.

In the past 12 months, over 97 percent of Ohio’s Household Survey job additions have occurred in Columbus. Other metro areas have picked up an unimpressive 10,000 jobs. That gain has been almost entirely offset by jobs lost in non-metro areas, leaving the rest of the state with almost invisible employment growth of +0.01 percent.

All of this is summarized in the two ugly charts (if you don’t live or work in Metro Columbus) below:

OhioEmpAndLFgrowthChartTo0713

This is not an acceptable situation, but apparently the folks running state government in Columbus don’t mind it. Otherwise, they’d be doing something about it. From all appearances, they’re not.

I guess as long as things are okay within and around the I-270 Beltway, what’s happening in the rest of the state doesn’t matter.

What else are we to conclude?

August 26, 2013

Ohio’s Economy Has Produced an Unacceptable Number of Private-Sector Jobs in the Past 12 Months

Filed under: Economy,Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 1:20 pm

Of all the annoyances in the world, this one’s nowhere near the top of the list. But it is annoying, and since it comes what’s supposed to be the home team, it deserves vetting.

The annoyance, constantly pounded by ORPINO (the Ohio Republican Party In Name Only) in its emails, is the true but spectacularly unimpressive claim that Ohio has added 174,700 private-sector jobs since January 2011.

Well, 174,700 is a big-sounding number. But where does this put Ohio compared to other states, and what has the Republican-dominated government and legislature done to make job creation in Ohio easier lately?

I’ll get to the lately part, defined as the past 12 months, right now. The answer is “not much, compared to other neighboring and midwestern states:

OhioAndOthJobGrowthJuly2012toJuly2013

Ohio is 46th in seasonally percentage job growth during the past 12 months.

Okay, this is overall job growth and not the private sector. Fine, let’s look at the private sector during the past year for the same eight states:

OhioAndOthPvtJobGrowthJuly2012toJuly2013

Ohio is sixth among the eight states under review (the not seasonally adjusted numbers have Ohio barely in 5th; its 62,400 jobs added represents 1.40% employment growth over 12 months, edging out Illinois at 1.39%).

I haven’t looked at all 50 states and DC, but I seriously doubt that Ohio’s private-sector job growth in the past year is anywhere near the top half of all states and DC.

The news gets worse if you look at the Household Survey employment numbers instead of the Establishment Survey’s payroll employment numbers, and even worse when you segregate Ohio’s own politician-dominated beltway in and around Columbus from the rest of the state. That work will follow later when the metro numbers are released later this week.

ORPINO and the Kasich administration are going to have to concoct some other way to impress Ohioans.

Hey, how about jettisoning that ill-advised quadrupling of the severance tax and abandoning Medicaid expansion? Not doing these two things is clearly holding back job growth — just about everywhere but in Metro Columbus, that is.