Private-sector employment increased by 216,000 from October to November, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
From the press release:
“For the month of November 2016 we saw very strong job growth that has almost doubled in gains over October 2016,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “This growth was seen in primarily consumer-driven industries like retail and, leisure and hospitality – across all company sizes. Overall, consumers are feeling confident and are driving the strong performance we currently see in the job market.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses hired aggressively in November and there is little evidence that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election dampened hiring. In addition, because of the tightening labor market, retailers may be accelerating seasonal hiring to secure an adequate workforce to meet holiday demand, although total expected seasonal hiring may be no higher than last year’s.
- October — from 147K to 119K
- September — from 202K to 196K (originally 154K)
CONFERENCE CALL NOTES (joined late):
MARK ZANDI (again, joining late):
… All in all, hard to argue with the result. About as good as it gets. Long time in coming, quite an achievement.
ME (prior month revisions) — Answer: ADP’s process of expanding to further industry coverage caused a re-look at the ADP model and its aggregation. Larger downward revision than before and have to watch future. Hesitant to draw conclusions from downward revision, because not sure it’s real. Something they’re watching. Will address next month. BLS revisions have been modest in up direction.
BLS next month will do comprehensive benchmark revisions which are expected to be small. Bottom line: Not a big deal yet.
Chris Rugaber, Associated Press (Hurricane Matthew impact snapback in Nov.) — Answer: Didn’t see any of that, probably small. Caution: ADP is based on people on payroll, and BLS is based on people who actually worked. So ADP doesn’t pick up weather impacts to the extent BLS does.
Rugaber (is job mix problematic, causing people aren’t “feeling it”?) — Answer: Quality of job creation is good. Was skewed to low-pay 7-8 years ago. Past 3-4 years, broad-based across pay scales.
Election was a reflection of taking so long to get back to near-full employment. Only in past year has wage growth picked up. Second element is specific pockets of weakness, e.g., energy, manufacturing, etc. Many people can’t move and are sort of stuck where they are. Regional voting patterns reflect that.
As market tightens further, pay will increase, people will be in better position to respond and will feel better about things.
Rugaber (regulation, deregulation, how to evaluate how that works, measuring success) — Answer: Hard to disentangle from other things going on. Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, energy/environment. Obamacare — hard to see how repeal would lead to growth (seriously??!! — Ed.). Dodd-Frank has slowed credit growth (except student loans and cars, which have exploded … — Ed.), and repeal/dereg could improve growth. But would it lead to jobs? Not clear. Regulatory changes can cause friction, winners/losers, winners don’t respond as quickly as losers, so it takes time. He acknowledges that Obamacare and Dodd-Frank affected econ growth, affecting productivity (where have you been, dude? This is after months/years of saying either it’s wrong, or it’s something we’ll have to live with. — Ed.). Changing regs will require an adjustment period. But, many things which could be done to make life better for business.